Africa's Big States

Big states are, by definition, important. They have an ability to influence their regions, and offer leadership outside of their borders. Yet this ability has been limited and negative rather than positive – even though they potentially could make a difference not only regionally but continentally, and not just by example but by practical effect. If anything, the trend has thus been towards regional insulation rather than integration. This runs counter to the need for improved regional integration in Africa (a key aspect of NEPAD), where, for example, continental trade is under 10% of the total.

This study had its origins in 1999 in a research focused on failed, failing or states in crisis in Africa. During the course of undertaking this research programme, however, the emphasis shifted to a focus primarily on the question: do the bigger states in Africa (defined according to a subjective assessment of geographic, population and economic size along with their regional role) face unique sets of problems which predispose them to crisis and, if so, can policy suggestions be made to assist with these special sets of problems?

The project was led by Jeffrey Herbst of Princeton University and Greg Mills, who was at the South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA) at the time, with the participation of the Stiftung-Wissenschaft-und-Politik and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. It was funded by the Ford Foundation and the Anglo American Chairman’s Fund, with contributions from the SAIIA, Stiftung-Wissenschaft-und-Politik and Princeton University. The project brought together analysts from Europe, Africa and North America at three conferences at Cadenabbia in Italy in November 2002; at the Tswalu Dialogue in South Africa in May 2003; and at Princeton University in October 2003.