Media Alert: Uganda's Presidential and Parliamentary Elections - 18 February 2011

This week the citizens of Uganda prepare to go to the polls for presidential and parliamentary elections on Friday, February 18. Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni is expected to win comfortably and the National Resistance Movement is likely to maintain its majority in Uganda’s Parliament. But there are a number of wide-ranging talking points linked to these elections.

The South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA) has been following developments in Uganda closely. Our researchers have travelled frequently to the country, have spoken to communities and policy makers and have researched and written on Uganda’s politics, economics and vast natural resources.

 

Important Issues to watch:

• Could we see some kind of popular uprising similar to what happened in Egypt? Uganda’s main opposition leader, Dr. Kizza Besigye, is likely to lose but he is quoted as saying, “If our victory is stolen it is to the court of public opinion to which I will appeal.” His hint not only points to his lack of faith in the electoral process but also suggests a popular backlash. He has, in the past, referred to Egypt as an example of what could happen in Uganda.

• Uganda will soon be the latest oil-producing country on the continent. Oil exploration companies have revised their estimates for proven reserves to 1 billion barrels per day, which could pour millions of dollars into government coffers. There are questions around how the government and Parliament, specifically, will handle oil agreements and revenues amid concerns over the lack of transparency and accountability.

• South Africa and Uganda have close political and economic ties. President Yoweri Museveni was in South Africa last month for a state visit. President Jacob Zuma visited Uganda last March. A host of South African companies such as Standard Bank, MTN and Shoprite have established business interests in the country. What do these close relations mean in the light of Uganda’s emerging oil exports?

• 88% of Uganda’s population live in rural areas and depend on the country’s environmental resources. However, the countries forests are disappearing at twice the rate of those in sub-Saharan Africa and nine times faster than those on the rest of the planet. While oil is seen as the ‘prized child’ in economic terms, Uganda’s other important natural resources are wasting away.

SAIIA Research and Commentary on www.saiia.org.za: (Click on the title to activate the link)

What will Uganda’s Elections mean for Oil Governance? by Alex Benkenstein

Uganda: Environmental Neglect Threatens Scorched Earth by Mari-Lise Du Preez

Amisom, Museveni, and the Lure of Somali Oil by Dr Petrus de Kock

Policy Briefing: Can Uganda’s Oil Endowment Support its Economic Development? (SAIIA Policy Briefing No. 26, December 2010) by Lesedi Modise

Contact Details:

SAIIA’s Governance of Africa’s Resources Programme in Cape Town will be watching developments in Uganda. Our researchers to contact are Alex Benkenstein (+27 79 212 5251) and Dr. Petrus de Kock (+27 82 885 6133). You can also contact Dr. Kathryn Sturman and Mari-Lise Du Preez on +27 21 422 0117. For further assistance, please contact SAIIA’s Communications Manager, Chevon Erasmus Porter, on +27 11 339 2021 extension 123 or +27 82 820 8036 or email: chevon.erasmusporter@wits.ac.za

Issued by: The South African Institute of International Affairs