Media Alert: Southern Sudan declares Independence on 9 July 2011
On Saturday, 9 July 2011, Southern Sudan will celebrate its independence from Northern Sudan. Independence for the south has wide ranging implications for the region: firstly, in terms of the impact it will have on relations with Northern Sudan and, secondly, in terms of unresolved border issues such as the disputed district of Abyei. Southern Sudan’s independence is also significant due to the challenge it presents the north and south in terms of managing its new border, and to find a deal on the export of oil from Southern Sudan through the northern pipeline and refinery infrastructures. For South Africa, which has invested heavily in peacekeeping, capacity building and mediation efforts in Sudan, independence for the south holds important implications for its foreign policy.
The South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA) has been following developments in Sudan closely. Dr. Petrus de Kock, one of SAIIA’s researchers, has travelled frequently to the country, and he has written extensively on conflict dynamics, resources, and the importance of maintaining peace in the Horn of Africa region. Petrus has presented several briefings, conference & seminar papers on Sudan. He is a regular media commentator on political, social and security dynamics in Sudan and the wider region.
Talking points and Important Issues to watch:
• Since May 2011 northern and southern military forces have been clashing in the Abyei district. This issue stems from the fact that a referendum on the future status of Abyei has not been held. Former South African President, Thabo Mbeki, is mediating in talks to find a resolution to the conflict in Abyei.
• Internal conflict directed at SPLM in Southern Sudan started after the April 2010 elections with senior military officers rebelling against the SPLM. Claims that Khartoum may be behind some of these rebellions abound, but, indications are that Southern Sudan will gain independence with several potential conflict flashpoints inside its territory.
• Constitutional developments in Southern and Northern Sudan have to be studied in detail. Southern Sudan has to adopt a new constitution, hold fresh elections, and formalise a new independent government.
• Demobilisation and reintegration of armed forces linked to the SPLA remains a key concern. Nearly 40% of the Southern Sudanese government budget goes to the army, meaning that demobilisation and reintegration of army units is a priority after independence.
• The impact of the ongoing conflict in Darfur will have on Northern Sudan has to be analysed in order to understand the unique challenges the north will face after losing the south to independence. A long history of rebellion against Khartoum, combined with grievances against the ruling elite in the north may well cause new forms of conflict to emerge with Khartoum at the centre thereof.
• Former South African President Thabo Mbeki’s role as chair of the African Union High Level Implementation Panel for Sudan and mediator in negotiations between Northern and Southern Sudan.
• The future of the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) peacekeeping force is under debate. Khartoum has indicated that it should be disbanded, or - if it’s mandate is to be extended by the United Nations - that it should only be based in Southern Sudan.
• Economic prospects for both Northern and Southern Sudan remain linked to continued oil production. 95% of Southern Sudan’s income comes from oil, which makes it totally dependent on exports of crude that run through the pipeline and refinery system in the north. Negotiations on the future management of the oil sector is thus crucial to the survival of both north and south Sudan after July 2011
SAIIA Research and Commentary on www.saiia.org.za:
• Analysis by Petrus de Kock: The celebrations and tribulations of Southern Sudan’s independence, SAIIA web feature, 4 July 2011
• De Kock, Petrus, The gravity of relations between Juba and Khartoum, The Thinker , volume 24, 2011, pp.12-15
• Moro, Leben Nelson, Governance of Oil Resources and the Referendum in Southern Sudan, Policy Briefing No. 29, March 2011
• De Kock, Petrus, A night out on the town of Juba, The Thinker, volume 20, 2010, pp.32-35
• SAIIA seminar report: Can Sudan’s resources be shared? Implications of the Southern Sudan Referendum, held 13 January 2011, Johannesburg
• De Kock, Petrus, Thabo Mbeki and the “Long Talk” to Southern Sudan’s Referendum, Policy Briefing No. 25, November 2010
Contact Details:
SAIIA’s Governance of Africa’s Resources Programme in Cape Town will be watching developments in Sudan. Dr. Petrus de Kock is available for media interviews and can be contacted on +27 21 422 0717 or +27 82 885 6133.
SAIIA Governance of Africa’s Resources Programme is funded by the Norwegian Embassy in Pretoria
