What Does the Future Hold for SACU? From Own Goal to Laduma! Scenarios for the Future of the Southern African Customs Union
by Tanja Hichert, Peter Draper and Talitha Bertelsmann-Scott
SAIIA Occasional Paper, No 63, July 2010
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A group of Southern African Customs Union (SACU) experts and interested parties recently participated in a scenario-planning exercise on the future of SACU. This paper gives an account of the scenarios developed, which range from SACU collapsing to a scenario where it deepens into a common market.
The exercise first mapped out the key certainties and uncertainties that SACU is facing. These range from the certainty that SACU will be impacted by the global economic slowdown to the uncertainty over whether an Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) will be concluded and what the final content and configuration of this agreement will be. The impact of these circumstances (and others) will shape the future of SACU.
The key certainties and uncertainties identified were then used to map the likelihood of these elements transpiring and what their potential impact will be on SACU. They constitute the gameboard of the scenarios. On the gameboard four quadrants are envisaged, each representing a different future for SACU. SACU’s current position is noted on the board, as well as its ideal future. Driving forces are identified that would either move SACU towards or away from this ideal future.
The group envisaged four possible futures for SACU and named them ‘Laduma!’, ‘Wild Card’, ‘Own Goal’ and ‘Red Card’, with ‘Laduma!’ representing the quadrant in which SACU’s ideal future lies. The key driving forces that would move SACU towards this goal include the conclusion of the EPA negotiations and a strong role for the SACU heads of state. Driving forces for a ‘Red Card’ scenario – a potential future in which South Africa no longer supports Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia and Swaziland and in which SACU collapses – are equally strong and plausible, with South African political instability emerging as the strongest potential driving force.
It is hoped that these scenarios will assist policymakers in their strategic prioritisation over the coming months and years.
