Africa in a New World: Geopolitics, Interdependence and Leverage
A conference celebrating SAIIA’s 75th anniversary
Thursday, 17 and Friday, 18 September 2009
Jan Smuts House
Johannesburg
The first ten years of the 21st century signal what seems to be a ‘return to the classical terrain of history, a terrain of great power rivalries, secret diplomacies, and irredentist claims and wars’, (John Gray: 1989), while simultaneously being characterised by global threats and challenges that are transnational in nature, and require greater international cooperation to tackle them than hitherto has been the case.
Although the US continues to be the undisputed superpower in terms of its global economic, military and diplomatic reach, both new and old Great Powers are flexing their muscles in their regions and beyond. Prominent academic and diplomat Kishore Mahbubani notes in his book The New Asian Hemisphere that ‘the geopolitical chessboard of the twenty-first century will be far more complex than the chessboards of the nineteenth and the twentieth centuries, marked for the first time by the entry of several non-Western major powers. […] Now new cultural and political perspectives have entered the scene.’
With 27% of the world’s poor, 34 of a total of 50 of the world’s least developed countries, and an average GNI per capita of $1,991, the African continent does not boast any great powers. Yet, with vast unexploited land and substantial mineral and energy resources, Africa’s global significance in the 21st century cannot be disputed.
To optimise the leverage this potentially provides, African actors must be ready to respond to the geopolitical shifts and the new global challenges such as climate change, migration and food insecurity in ways that help them to shape their futures.
As one of the oldest think tanks in sub-Saharan Africa, SAIIA aims in hosting this conference to provide a platform for debate on Africa’s external relations with the big powers and in the multilateral terrain, and to integrate how African states should respond and adapt to the global changes and challenges facing the world.
PROGRAMME
DAY ONE: POWERS NEW AND OLD, AND AFRICA
09:00-09:30 Registration
09:30-09:45 Welcome
Mr Fred Phaswana
National Chairman, South African Institute of International Affairs
09:45-11:15 Keynote addresses: What do the geopolitical and ‘global commons’ challenges mean for Africa?
His Excellency Alpha Oumar Konaré
Former President of Mali
Honourable Ebrahim Ebrahim MP
Deputy Minister of International Relations and Cooperation, South Africa
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11:15-11:45 Break
11:45-13:30 Session One: Moving the centre of gravity from the Atlantic to the Pacific
Moderator: Dr Olu Ajakaiye, Research Director, African Economic Research Consortium
The phenomenal rise of China, but also of other Asian powers, since the end of the Cold War, has been the catalyst for the shift of political, diplomatic and economic power (sometimes imperceptibly) away from the Atlantic, which has dominated the globe for the last 300 years, to the Pacific. The US continues to be the dominant power in the world, but the rise of Asia and the new global challenges facing the world mean that the US on its own can no longer determine the outcome of events. International cooperation is vital, but shifts in power also bring uncertainty and potential instability to the international system. What do these changes foretell for the international system and the key players in it? What does it mean for those on the margins of the world economy?
Professor Rajesh Rajagopalan
Chairperson, Centre for International Politics, Jawaharlal Nehru University
Discussant: Dr Thomas Fues, Head: Training Department, German Development Institute
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13:30-14:30 Lunch
14:30-16:00 Session Two: Africa and the great powers
Moderator: Alex Vines, Research Director Regional and Security Studies, Chatham House
African countries have responded to the changing geopolitical landscape over the last few years by adopting new priorities in their foreign relations. Nevertheless, Africa is not a monolithic entity nor do all actors share the same interests. How have key regional powers in Africa responded to these global shifts in their foreign policy? How have their relations with key established and emerging powers, especially the US, the EU, China, Russia and India changed? What role can regional powers play in these new power configurations and how are they projecting power/influence in their engagement with the big states?
Angola, Salim Valimamade, Director, Centro de Estudos e Investigacao Cientifica at Universidade Catolica de Angola (UCAN)
South Africa, Dr Mzukisi Qobo, SAIIA research associate
Nigeria, Professor Osita C. Eze, Director General, Nigerian Institute of International Affairs
Vice-Admiral Martyn Trainor (retd) SA Navy
16:00-16:30 Break
16:30-18:00 Session Three: The great powers and Africa
Moderator: Victor Brobbey, Centre for Democratic Development-Ghana
For different reasons that range from resources to security threats, both old and new powers view Africa as a field of renewed interest. What are the relations of key external powers with particular countries and/or regions and how are these evolving? Is there a link between this engagement and development?
The United States, Dr Jennifer Cooke, Director, Africa Programme, CSIS
Russia, Dr Andrey Urnov, Lead researcher, Institute for African Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences
China, Dr Chris Alden, Project Head: China in Africa, South African Institute of International Affairs
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SAIIA’s work on Emerging Powers and Global Challenges is funded by SIDA and DANIDA
DAY TWO: GLOBAL GOVERNANCE, GLOBAL CHALLENGES AND AFRICA
09:30-10:30 Chair: Moeletsi Mbeki, Deputy Chairman, SAIIA
Keynote address: Africa as an actor in global governance reform for development
Honourable Trevor Manuel MP
Minister in the Presidency
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10:30-11:00 Break
11:00-12:30 Session Four: Breaking deadlocks in global governance
Moderator: Dr Thomas Fues, German Development Institute
At no other time in history is the need for global, concerted action greater than today, in order to address emerging transnational threats such as climate change, energy security, migration, food security, and poverty. Given the political and economic paradigm shifts discussed in previous sessions there is an urgent need to reassess the value of existing global governance institutions. What are the options and trade-offs between representivity and capability, reform or abolishment? Is there a place for new parallel institutions emerging from the South? What is the role of informal clubs such as the G8 + G5 outreach; the G20 finance and others to break deadlocks?
Dr John English, Director, Centre for International Governance Innovation, Canada
Dr Uttam Kumar Sinha, Research Fellow, Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, India
Elizabeth Sidiropoulos, National Director, SAIIA
12:30-13:30 Lunch
13:30-15:30 Session Five: Africa, the South and global governance
Moderator: Geert Laporte, Head: Institutional Partnerships, European Centre for Development Policy Management
Africa’s limited economic and political weight means that it will continue to be a small player on the global stage despite its rich natural wealth. It is a weak player in international negotiations and overshadowed both by developed states and big developing countries. Indeed, the big developing countries – although symbolically still part of the South – have very different interests from the bulk of the poor developing countries, most of which are in Africa. In this context, how can Africa influence global debates and reform of global institutions? What types of coalitions best serve the promotion of sustainable solutions to the continent’s challenges? What lessons can we learn from other small middle-income countries? Can and should regional African powers play a more pro-active role within Africa in shaping the debate on global challenges and governance? Have we learnt any lessons from the failed UNSC reform initiative at the beginning of the millennium?
Is there a role for Africa’s regional and sub-regional institutions to build African consensus and develop regional initiatives and processes to deal with some of these global challenges, such as climate change, energy and food security, and health?
Dr Fantu Cheru, Director of Research, Nordic-Africa Institute, Uppsala
Joshua Setipa, Counsellor in the Office of the DG, World Trade Organisation
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Humphrey Mulemba, Jesuit Centre for Theological Reflection, Zambia
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