Economic Diplomacy: Opinion
Not Another BRIC in the Wall
By seeking to become the fifth member of the Brics, the club of emerging powers formed by Brazil, Russia, India and China, South Africa has staked a bold claim to a central role on the global economic stage. But if the country is to justify a place at the forefront of the Newly Industrialising Economies (NIEs), its economic performance will need to match up to its ambitions.
The WTO must adapt and evolve to stay relevant
Business Report
More than 60 years after its creation, the multilateral trading system is at a crossroads. Recent global events, such as the food crisis and, most importantly, the global economic meltdown have all raised significant questions about the role and future of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) in global economic governance.
The WTO's flagship project, the Doha "development" round of trade talks, did not even rate a mention in the Group of 20 meetings in Canada last month. Assuming Doha ultimately concludes, the WTO's contours should change if the organisation is to maintain its relevance.
Scoping the Future of SACU-a hundred years on
Engineering News
On June 29, the Southern African Customs Union (Sacu) celebrated its centenary. In April, Sacu heads of State held their first-ever summit under the theme ‘Implementing a common agenda towards regional integration in Southern Africa’. Tellingly, they plan to meet again this month to discuss “outstanding issues” concerning the organisation’s future. While Sacu may be 100 not out, it is not clear whether this is the end of a good innings or a portent double ton in the making.
Economic policy battle lines drawn
Mail &Guardian
There is a great deal of talk at present about who really controls South Africa's economic policy and amid the clash of arms it is easy to miss just how pivotal a moment we are in.
What's China's Aim?
Financial Mail
China’s global emergence is overwhelmingly good for the world. But after the global economic crisis that has hobbled the West, it is pertinent to ask what leadership China intends to provide to consolidate and extend the liberal international economic order.
Ensuring southern Africa is not roasted in Copenhagen
Business day
This week’s Copenhagen summit on climate change is unlikely to deliver much beyond a broad framework agreement, leaving many details to be worked out in the build-up to the expiration of the Kyoto Protocol in 2012.
The Pittsburgh G20 Leaders Summit
What a difference five months makes in the fortunes of our turbulent global economy. When G20 leaders met in London this April the western financial system teetered on the brink of the abyss. Now, days before the third G20 leaders’ meeting in ten months, at Pittsburgh, the Governors of the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England have purportedly declared the recession over.
SA's Clothing and Textile Sector post 'Chinese Quotas'
Sub Saharan Africa (SSA) has experienced increasing competition from Chinese manufactured exports particularly in the clothing and textiles industry. In most SSA countries including South Africa (SA), the clothing and textiles industry developed under import substitution policies and was highly protected. The quota market access offered by developed countries for four decades under the Multi Fibre Agreement (MFA) that lasted until the end of 2004 also influenced the development of the industry. Foreign direct investment (FDI) into the African industry was primarily from Asia (notably Taiwan and China) and motivated by the need to diversify export platforms, or “quota hopping”. More recently Lesotho’s export success reflects these dynamics.
Simmering Tensions in the Region Call for Cool Heads
Business Report
July 12, 2009
Tensions over the future of the Southern African Customs Union (Sacu) and trade relations with the EU are rising as has been recently reflected on these pages. Unfortunately, they are so complex that they defy simple categorisation.
Trade in Regional Electricity Services
July, 2009
Electricity is arguably the most dynamic of all energy products. It provides a wide variety of services including light, heat, powering electronics, etc. The development of a country’s electricity sector is a crucial precondition for broader economic growth and for overall economic and social development. Unfortunately, the electricity sector in the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) member states is facing chronic challenges including lack of surplus capacity, and underdeveloped power transmission and distribution infrastructure. Consequently, the economies have been experiencing high electrical power system losses, extreme voltage fluctuations and intermittent power outages which cause equipment and material damage leading to losses in production. Hence electricity’s contribution to the high cost of doing business in the region is rising.
SACU's Future
In recent weeks the future of the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) has been a subject of much media speculation. SAIIA has contributed actively to this debate through its public commentary and prior research. For more information see the collection of articles published in Business Report recently, including one by our Trade Programme Head, Peter Draper; also see the press reports on the speech given at SAIIA by
- Moroka talk:
- Engineering news:
http://www.engineeringnews.co.za/article/botswana-saiia-discussion-2009-07-16 - Business Day:
http://www.bday.co.za/articles/Content.aspx?id=76055
- Engineering news:
- Business report:
- South African Trade Minister Rob Davies:
http://www.busrep.co.za/index.php?fSectionId=553&fArticleId=5086378 - Peter Fabricius (Independent Newspapers’ Foreign Editor) : http://www.busrep.co.za/index.php?fSectionId=561&fArticleId=5077523
- Mzukisi Qobo and Joseph Senoana (DTI officials):
http://www.busrep.co.za/index.php?fSectionId=561&fArticleId=5077538 - Peter Draper:
http://www.busrep.co.za/index.php?fSectionId=553&fArticleId=5077541
- South African Trade Minister Rob Davies:
On the future of the Southern African Customs Union
As published in the Business Report
9th July, 2009
Tensions over the future of the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) and trade relations with the European Union (EU) are rising, as recently reflected on these pages. Unfortunately they are so complex that they defy simple categorisation.
Rethinking the “Buy Local” conditions in the SA Infrastructure Investment Programme
The current global economic crisis has forced countries to design and implement various economic stimulus packages. Infrastructure investment programmes are major form these stimulus packages take. These programmes are intended to offset further economic meltdown by stimulating aggregate demand. However, doubts exist about the trade-damaging nature of some of these programmes, especially where little is known publicly about their scope or how they are to be implemented. Furthermore, governments face strong pressure to introduce a domestic-bias into the design and implementation of these programmes.
Fossiled Priorities In IPP Regulations?
The Department of Minerals and Energy (DME) released its draft independent power producer (IPP) regulations on January 30 with a harsh deadline of March 2, for public comment. What is interesting is the timing of this release. The National Energy Regulator of South Africa (Nersa) released its consultation paper and draft guidelines on the renewable energy feed-in tariff (Refit) in December, conducted extensive public hearings and released its final draft of the Refit policy at the end of March. The question that arises is whether the DME was attempting to complement or thwart Nersa in its Refit policy.
SA's Stimulus Package Rings Alarm Bells about Trade Policy
As the economic contraction induced by the global financial crisis deepens, multilateral finance institutions, central banks and governments are intervening by injecting liquidity, recapitalising and restructuring financial institutions to halt the world economy from plunging into depression.
Trade Finance Squeeze
Trade finance (sometimes called short-term credit) is considered as the true lifeline on which the majority of world trade operates today as it can provide fluidity and security to the movement of goods and services. With around 80 percent of the US$14 trillion in world trade financed by open accounts and 20 percent by way of documentary credits, such as letters of credit (LCs), trade finance is critical to sustaining global trade.
Trade Talks Challenge Governments to Practical Action
allAfrica.com
The controversial negotiations over trade agreements between the European Union and regional blocs in Africa are challenging governments to rethink the best way of promoting economic integration across the continent. The impact of the agreements will depend on whether governments put their efforts into consolidating existing regional communities, or allow grand plans for integration to become surrogates for action.Is the global food crisis over?
Since reaching their peak in mid 2008 after increasing since 2003, global food prices began moderating. Many conferences were held to find solutions and A Common Framework of Action (CFA) was adopted by the United Nations (UN) to reverse the crisis. However, as the global financial crisis intensified food prices fell and the flurry of conferences and media activity subsequently died away.
What Future for Monetary Policy in Zimbabwe?
Zimbabwe is much in the news again with its newly minted unity government. It remains to be seen whether it will cohere and drive a concerted reconstruction process. Within this Zimbabwe's future monetary policy is of enormous importance owing to the country's infamous inflation rate. Three monetary reform scenarios are being discussed: an ordinary or crawling peg to a basket of currencies; ‘Randization' (adopting the Rand); and a currency board, ie a domestic currency with the money base one hundred per cent backed by foreign reserves. The latter two would entail Zimbabwe surrendering monetary policy sovereignty - an issue attracting considerable controversy .
Rising to the Protectionist Challenge
There is consensus on the causes of the global financial crisis: lax financial regulation in developed countries especially the US, combined with overly accommodative monetary policy fuelled by global macroeconomic imbalances. It is not clear what can be done multilaterally to address these underlying causes, although the Washington G20 Leaders' summit in November 2008 made a useful contribution. Therefore, crisis responses are domestically driven, and have spawned a profusion of special interest groups clamouring for sweetheart deals, including in South Africa.
What should world (and African) leaders do to halt protectionism from spreading?
This is an unedited paper which forms part of a larger body of work on the VoxEU.org website. Click here to view the full set of articles.
There is a saying in Africa which goes: "when the elephants fight, the grass gets trampled". This accurately depicts the fallout from the current global economic disorder since it is clear that whilst Africans had very little to do with the makings of the crisis, we will suffer from it. This will manifest in two broad ways: the direct economic impacts, and growing regulatory protectionism. The former will occur through three channels:
SACU and Deeper Integration
To date the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) has entirely abolished tariffs and most quantitative trade restrictions pertaining to intra-SACU trade in its quest for deeper integration. However, there are still other protectionist measures applied by member states on intra-SACU imports, which are less transparent and hence impede intra-SACU trade.
South African Objectives in the G20 Leaders Summit
To the apparent surprise of G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meeting in Washington last month, George Bush, outgoing President of the United States of America (US), proposed that a formal summit of G20 heads of state convene in Washington on November 15th. This will be the first time that the G20, established in the aftermath of the Asian financial crisis of 1997-9 has been convened at Heads of State level. The immediate backdrop to this important initiative is well-known: the financial crisis emanating in the developed world and the USA in particular, which is now engulfing emerging markets. But what are the summit's prospects?
South Africa’s Current Account Deficit: Are Proposed Cures Worse than the Disease?
The article is based on their new report which can be downloaded here.
South Africa stands at the cusp of a crucial political transition, the contours of which are slowly becoming clearer. This is taking place in a domestic context of high unemployment and social agitation driven by high crime levels, whilst economic growth stalls in the midst of global recessionary conditions. Hence economic policy is again the subject of intense debate. Of greatest concern is maintaining macroeconomic stability - rightly seen as a prerequisite for sustaining economic growth.
Is South Africa Serious about Services Liberalisation?
Business Day
The availability, affordability and quality of key infrastructure services like communication, transport, energy, construction, and financial services fundamentally influences a country's trade competitiveness and its concomitant economic growth and human development. Inefficiencies and inadequacies in the supply of these services severely cripple the capacity of countries to produce products and services of sufficient quality and quantity to meet both the needs of domestic operators and export markets. South Africa (SA) is no exception.
The WTO in a Changing Global Economic Order
Financial Mail
6 August 2008
by Peter Draper
Notwithstanding marathon talks in Geneva, the Doha Round has ground to a halt again. Disappointing, although not surprising; still it shouldn't be confused with a complete collapse. Whilst that remains a distinct possibility, it is likely that in time it will be revived again.
Fragments of Trade
Mail and Guardian
In late February a diplomatic flurry in the regional trading firmament erupted. Our Foreign Minister stated in Parliament that the EU, out of fear over the Chinese trade "threat", is using Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) with the EU to lock in old colonial trading relationships. Subsequently Peter Mandelson, EU Trade Commissioner, descended on Pretoria and Gaborone. What is going on?Development Through Trade - Business Day Exporter Column - April 2008
SA faces competition in the bid to attract investment, writes Phil Alves“WE WANT Mauritius to be the gateway for east Asia into southern and east Africa,” Mauritius’s finance minister told the Financial Times last month. No wonder Mauritius is set to host one of five of China’s planned (and Chinese-financed) “special economic zones” (SEZs) for Africa.
Southern Africa: European Trade Deal Challenges Unity
allAfrica.comGUEST COLUMN
6 March 2008
Nkululeko Khumalo
Trade talks between the European Union and southern African countries have opened up serious differences between Europe and South Africa, and between South Africa and her neighbours.
Development Through Trade - Business Day Exporter Column - March 2008
Tsidiso Disenyana
Business Day Exporter
SOUTH African individuals and companies involved in trade have to know as much as possible about the conditions of trade. It is therefore important that policies and regulations affecting them are developed and disseminated more transparently than at present.
Africa: Europe Trade Pacts Offer New Challenges, Opportunities
allAfrica.comGUEST COLUMN
4 February 2008
Peter Draper
New trade agreements with Europe have raised legitimate fears for the future of African industry but offer new potential for two-way trade, buttressed by aid and "aid for trade" packages. Now trade talks turn to even more contentious issues, such as investment, intellectual property and trade in services, writes Peter Draper in the first of a new series of regular columns for AllAfrica from experts of the South African Institute of International Affairs.
Development through Trade - Business Day Exporter Column - Feb 2008
Philip Alves
Business Day Exporter
ECONOMISTS rarely agree, and never about what’s going to happen next. But if Niels Bohr was right, this makes economics good science. According to Albert Einstein’s Danish colleague, “prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future”.
Development through Trade - Business Day Exporter column - Dec07
Business Day Exporter,
04 December 2007
THE Southern African Development Community (SADC) is not sexy. The media only takes an interest in it when trade negotiations with the European Union hit (another) snag, or when it is time for SADC heads of state to meet. Even then attention spans generally do not extend beyond the SADC’s messy politics.
Multilateralizing Regionalism - Implications for Africa
Peter Draper
Business in Africa, 15 November 2007
The quickest way to empty a room is to mention the WTO’s Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations. With the US Congress seemingly bent on defying the world by holding onto lavish agricultural subsidies, it seems unlikely (although not impossible) a breakthrough will be achieved in the coming months. Therefore attention is turning to longer term plans to rescue the WTO from its malaise.
Rival crews can both steer by the star of competition
Peter Draper and Raymond Parsons
Business Day, 09 November 2007
IT IS right that there should be a healthy debate about industrial and trade policy in SA. These are not policy areas for purists but for pragmatists. In steering a course between the recent views of Finance Minister Trevor Manuel and Trade and Industry Minister Mandisi Mpahlwa, there may be more common ground than is apparent at first sight. But at the heart of the debate is the role competition should play in driving growth and development.
Development through Trade - Business Day Exporter column - Nov07
Nkululeko Khumalo
Business Day Exporter, 05 November 2007
ALL observers except for pathological optimists generally agree that the World Trade Organisation (WTO) is in trouble and needs cosmetic changes as well as some serious surgery.
Some African labour markets don’t work, but competition helps
Phil Alves
Business in Africa, 15 October 2007
Labour market regulation is a thorny issue in African economic policy debates. In many African countries, labour movements played an important role in liberation struggles. Labour is therefore often well-organised, and labour market regulation is now remarkably well developed in many places on the continent. But do the labour markets they regulate work?
Development through Trade - Business Day Exporter column - Oct07
Peter Draper
Business Day Exporter, 01 October 2007
THE quickest way to empty a room is to mention the World Trade Organisation’s (WTO’s) Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations. With the US Congress seemingly bent on defying the world by holding onto lavish agricultural subsidies, it seems unlikely (although not impossible) a breakthrough will be achieved in the coming months.
Therefore attention is turning to longer term plans to rescue the WTO from its malaise.
Development through Trade - Business Day Exporter column - Sep07
Phil Alves
Business Day Exporter, 04 September 2007
COMMENTARY on the state’s plans to take a more active, interventionist role in our economy is reaching fever-pitch.
All manner of concerns have been raised. Should the state intervene more directly? Are planned interventions focused in the right areas? Are we risking nasty unintended consequences of greater state involvement? Can the state actually do it?
Development through Trade - Business Day Exporter column - Aug07
Nkululeko Khumalo
Business Day Exporter, 06 August 2007
HIGH-ranking officials, including US Trade Representative Susan Schwab, and representatives from African countries that are beneficiaries of the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa), descended on the Ghanaian capital Accra to attend the Sixth Agoa Forum on July 18-19.
Development through Trade - Business Day Exporter column - Jul07
Peter Draper
Business Day Exporter, 02 July 2007
BY THE time you read this column a breakthrough in the Doha Round may just have occurred.
Many commentators, including me, were fearful that the Democrat takeover of the US Congress would lead to a reversal in US trade politics in the sense that labour rights and the environment would move higher up their agenda, but would be resisted in the World Trade Organisation (WTO), thereby spelling doom for the round (and possibly the WTO itself).
Development through Trade - Business Day Exporter column - Jun07
Phil Alves
Business Day Exporter, 04 June 2007
INDIAN interest in the South African economy is growing apace. Planned investments by Indian companies in SA over the coming years reportedly add up to billions of rands.
The Tata Group is, or soon will be, active in vehicles, telecommunications, hotels and tourism, and ferrochrome.
EPAs can succeed if negotiated in good faith
Nkululeko Khumalo
Business Day, 04 June 2007
THE European Union (EU) recently injected new life into the Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) talks between itself and six groups of African Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) countries, which seemed to be a sure disaster waiting to happen.
Plant biotechnology provides hope for Africa’s future
Nkululeko Khumalo
Business in Africa, 31 May 2007
Ensuring food security and self-sufficiency remains a gargantuan challenge for Africa. Currently more than 200 million people suffer from chronic starvation and malnutrition and generally survive on donor food aid.
Development through Trade - Business Day Exporter column - May07
Nkululeko Khumalo
Business Day Exporter, 07 May 2007
THE liberalisation of trade in services is one of the most controversial issues in the World Trade Organisation (WTO).
This is mainly because many developing countries worry about losing “policy space” to supranational institutions or the “unaccountable bureaucrats in Geneva”, as US officials put it.
Development through Trade - Business Day Exporter column - Apr07
Peter Draper
Business Day Exporter, 02 April 2007
FOR the past five years the EU and its former colonies in the African, Caribbean, and Pacific (ACP) group have locked horns in potentially far-reaching trade and development negotiations.
Called economic partnership agreements (EPAs), these are ordered in a series of regional processes, with the EU playing “hub” to six ACP regional “spokes”, four of which are in Africa.
In search of a development agenda
Peter Draper
Business in Africa, 01 April 2007
The past five years have seen the European Union (EU) and its former colonies in the African, Caribbean, and Pacific (ACP) group locking horns in potentially far-reaching trade and develo-ment negotiations. Called “Economic Partnership Agreements” (EPAs), these are ordered in a series of regional processes with the EU playing “hub” to six ACP regional “spokes”, four of which are in Africa.
Development through Trade - Business Day Exporter column - Mar07
Phil Alves
Business Day Exporter, 05 March 2007
GOVERNMENT is giving “some consideration” to our exchange rate policies. For exporters, local manufacturers and those who feel that our current macroeconomic policy framework is a straightjacket inhibiting higher growth, including some of the Harvard group advising government, it must be great news.
Doha: Too early to sound the death knell?
Peter Draper
Business in Africa, 01 March 2007
It’s official: the Doha Round is on again. But with what prospects?
Pascal Lamy, the WTO’s director-general, identified a “triangle” requiring resolution in order to unlock the broader round. Currently negotiators interpret this to mean that: the US must cut its domestic agricultural subsidies to a $17bn ceiling; the EU must offer better tariff and tariff quota access to its agricultural markets; and big developing countries (eg, Brazil, South Africa, India, China) must offer better tariff access to their industrial goods markets.
Engaging Asia's Biggest Tiger
Phil Alves
Business in Africa, 01 March 2007
China’s rise is inevitable. As long as it remains an outward-oriented economy, China will continue to drive restructuring processes in manufacturing all over the world, particularly in countries that have until now enjoyed the advantages of relatively cheap labour.
SA must take Chinese bull by the horns or get kicked
Phil Alves
08 February 2007, Business Report
China has emerged as a driver of change, globally. And 2007 will be no different from recent years; if anything, existing pressures will intensify.
Forecasts of China's growth are as strong as ever; its export expansion will continue apace; resistance to more rapid yuan revaluation will remain firm; and emerging anti-China sentiment in some parts of the world, South Africa included, is likely to mushroom.
Development through Trade - Business Day Exporter column - Feb07
By Peter Draper
05 February 2007, Business Day Exporter
ONCE again the US political scene will be most influential on international trade policy this year, particularly the Doha Round of world trade negotiations.
The year started with reassuring noises from US and EU trade negotiators following bilateral presidential meetings. These concerned the possibilities for mutual compromise on the pivotal farm trade agenda.
China-bashing no basis for policy
By Peter Draper
25 October 2006, Business Day
WHILE I have never worked in the fashion industry, I do know that South African fashions lag European and American. The same, it seems, is true of our trade debate. “China-bashing”, in keeping with trends “overseas”, is coming into its own in SA. The most obvious manifestation is the textiles saga; but similar currents are brewing in the metals and vehicle sectors. No doubt others will throw their hats into the ring.
Development through Trade - Business Day Exporter column - Oct06
By Peter Draper
Business Day Exporter, 02 October 2006
AS I write, Cosatu is deliberating on its industrial strategy vision. In the wake of the Chinese textiles saga, in which trade union influence was palpable, it is important to understand what this vision means for government’s economic policy and industrial strategy.
That it is available on Cosatu’s website is commendable — I’m all for transparency in policy discourse. But it’s the document’s only redeeming feature.
Development through Trade - Business Day Exporter column - Sep06
By Peter Draper
Business Day Exporter, 04 September 2006
LEGEND has it that the Chinese character for “threat” also signifies “opportunity”. The recent meltdown in Geneva over concluding the Doha trade round should be viewed in this light.
The Geneva talks failed for well-known reasons: the European Union (EU) and India’s intransigence over reforming agricultural tariffs (they offered lower tariffs but clung to wholesale exemptions — “sensitive products” for the EU and “special products” for India); and the US’s intransigence over its domestic agricultural subsidies (currently about $19bn of actual expenditure out of $22bn allowed, whereas reform proponents would like to see the latter at about $15bn).
Development through Trade - Business Day Exporter column - Aug06
By Peter Draper
Business Day Exporter, 07 August 2006
I HAVE travelled to many parts of the world and seen processes far worse than those that greet visitors to Johannesburg International Airport (JIA): Mumbai and Sao Paulo come to mind; New York is no picnic. But that doesn’t excuse our inadequacies. 2010 is an important consideration here but ultimately we need to get it right in our own best interests.
SA Dare Not Spoil the Doha Party
By Peter Draper and Phil Alves
24 July 2006, Business Day
AT LEAST one good thing emerged from last week’s Group of Eight summit: an agreement at the highest level that the Doha Round must be salvaged. True, French President Jacques Chirac will do his utmost to scupper this apparent consensus and the gaps between the key players are still substantial but the round has received a welcome boost.
The Chill Winds of Doha
By Peter Draper
21 July, 2006, The Mail and Guardian
Time is running out for the World Trade Organisation. Can the WTO’s weary membership go once more into the breach after its most recent failure?
The consequences of failing to achieve a Doha round agreement would be severe. The multilateral trading system, while imperfect and iniquitous in parts, is worth saving, warts and all. Failure would mean that its key mechanism – international economic negotiations – would have broken down, leading to dissolution of its other key mechanism – dispute settlement – under a rising tide of high-stakes trade disputes. International trade policy would be determined through judicial activism exposing poor countries to the tender mercies of the rich nations.
Food for Thought in a Hungry Region
By Nkululeko Khumalo and George Naphambo
12 July 2006, Business Day
FOOD security has consistently eluded Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries over the past five years. Millions of people still suffer from chronic starvation and malnutrition. The future is not promising either — climate-change specialists predict continuing droughts and attendant famines. Clearly, these challenges urgently require robust and sustainable corrective measures.
Development through Trade - Business Day Exporter column - Jul06
By Peter Draper
Business Day Exporter, 03 July 2006
BY THE end of this month we should be reasonably clear whether the Doha round is going into the deep freeze or the end game. I will focus on a key aspect: trade in industrial goods.
More sour than sweet in SA-China trade relations
By Phil Alves
25 June, 2006, Sunday Times
HAILED as an overwhelming success, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao’s visit to South Africa raises profound questions about bilateral engagement and how we will deal with global economic and trade dynamics in the coming decade.
It’s Time to Stop Blaming China Alone Over Textiles
By Phil Alves
5 June 2006, Business Day
CHINA-bashing in SA is intensifying. It is centred on clothing and textile imports. But diminishing returns are setting in; the blame game is becoming tiresome. Not least because much of it is based on misperceptions.
Development through Trade - Business Day Exporter column - Jun06
By Peter Draper
Business Day Exporter, 05 June 2006
WHAT are the appropriate contours of a SA-centric intra-African trade strategy? Among economists there is consensus that productive, or supply-side, capacities encompassing a host of “behind-the-border” issues need attention. The main infrastructural requirements are physical (roads, rail, ports, communications, energy); technological (national innovation systems); financial; and human (education).
Development through Trade - Business Day Exporter column - Apr06
By Peter Draper
Business Day Exporter, 03 April 2006
I USED to think trade debates were polarised until I discovered genetically modified (GM) foods. Being a rationalist, I was somewhat puzzled by the heated opposition to this liberating technology, prompting a search for answers.
Why the Poor Need the WTO
By Peter Draper
24 March 2006, The Mail & Guardian.
In Hong Kong in December last year, I watched as South Korean farmers, in a sophisticated military-style operation, engaged the police in a fierce melee outside the convention centre. Their struggle, as Peter Mandelson reminded us later the same day (and he is well placed to understand such sentiments), is to maintain their privileges in the face of potential liberalisation through the Doha round.
Africa-China Relations Require Reality Check
By Peter Draper
9 March 2006, Business Report
China is a rising, rapidly modernising power. Its manufacturing prowess grows daily; its overseas footprint measured through population and investment expansion abroad is increasingly felt.
This translates into mounting geopolitical muscle, with China now a permanent member of the UN security council, a powerful player in the World Trade Organisation (WTO) and on the fringes of coveted Group of Eight membership.
Development through Trade - Business Day Exporter column - Mar06
By Peter Draper
Business Day Exporter, 06 March 2006
“PHANSI WTO!” (Down with the WTO!) — the frenzied cry greeted Pascal Lamy, director-general of the World Trade Organisation (WTO), as he stood up to address the assembled audience in our hall.
A brief scuffle ensued as the protesters were escorted out to join a larger group outside.
Inside, Moeletsi Mbeki, deputy national chairman of the South African Institute of International Affairs, reminded the audience that Lamy was the guest of a democratically elected government, not a criminal.
The Emperor's New Clothing Deals
By Phil Alves
21 February 2006, Business Day
MANY bad things have been said about cheap Chinese imports. The effects of the red tide have been felt economy-wide, but the clearest problems have arisen in our clothing and textiles industries. Recently we heard that Beijing had promised to place voluntary restraints on its exports of some textile and apparel items to SA. We do not yet know the precise form of the deal, but we do have precedents to work with — China has reached agreements covering the same issues with the European Union (EU) and the US.
SA Needs to Get the Basics Right
By Peter Draper and Razeen Sally
8 February 2006, Business Day
BARRING an obsession with trade negotiations, there is no discussion of trade policy in SA. Yet well-calibrated trade policy can have significant positive effects on economic growth. It should be carved out as a separate policy space in its own right. As government moves to accelerate our economic growth, it is time to consider this issue.
Development through Trade - Business Day Exporter column - Feb06
By Peter Draper
Business Day Exporter, 06 February 2006
SA SHOULD develop a trade policy, as distinct from negotiating positions. As government moves to accelerate our economic growth rate it is timely to consider this.
Why is trade important? The economic case is that it enables companies and consumers to use their scarce resources efficiently. On a national level this promotes specialisation in production and a wider exchange of goods. Transmission of new products embodied in imported goods and services encourages innovation. And specialisation should not be thought of in a static sense — no economy stands still unless its political system melts down.
What Could Be Eating Beijing?
By Phil Alves
28 December 2005, Business Day
To many casual observers, the Chinese economy is Herculean. Nothing will stop it growing, few can compete with its manufacturing prowess, and none exerts the same degree of leverage over the U.S. economy.
Chinese leaders, however, are worried. They are concerned about their future in the global system, and perceive a variety of domestic dangers that could derail their 25-year-long growth miracle. What does Beijing sense that the rest of us cannot or do not want to see?
Business Must Not Miss this Boat
By Peter Draper
16 December 2005, Business Day
FREE-trade area talks between the Southern African Customs Union (Sacu) and the US are a bit like the children’s film, The Never Ending Story. Except this story may not have a happy ending. Rumours out of Washington suggest the US may be about to walk away from the talks. Evidently, strategic calculations — and associated posturing — are afoot.
Development through Trade - Business Day Exporter column - Dec05
By Peter Draper
Business Day Exporter, 05 December 2005
WITHOUT a satisfactory deal in agriculture the Doha Round of trade talks will unravel. But the parameters of “satisfactory” vary hugely depending on who is under the microscope.
The agreement on agriculture consists of three “pillars”: domestic support (subsidies, further divided into non-trade and trade distorting); market access (tariffs and quotas); and export subsidies. Agreement on eliminating export subsidies has been obtained in principle subject to disciplines to be negotiated on US export credits and food aid (the latter will yet prove problematic). Most of the recent action has been on domestic support and market access.
Development through Trade - Business Day Exporter column - Nov05
By Peter Draper
Business Day Exporter, 07 November 2005
SENIOR South African government representatives argue that they are agents of a development state.
This notion is drawn primarily from the extensive literature covering East Asian industrialisation. In the 1980s and 1990s a fierce debate raged in development policy circles about the policy instruments those countries used to propel their rapid industrialisation.
Development through Trade - Business Day Exporter column - Oct05
By Peter Draper
Business Day Exporter, 03 October 2005
THE World Trade Organisation’s (WTO’s) biannual ministerial jamboree is just around the corner. This year it will take place in Hong Kong in December. What is it likely to deliver?
Central to answering this question is the shifting fortunes of the agriculture negotiations. These are organised into three “pillars”: export competition (export subsidies); market access (tariffs); and domestic support (subsidies).
A French Twist for Trade
Peter Draper
Bangkok Post, 31 August 2005
Next week, Frances Pascal Lamy, the former European Union trade commissioner, will succeed Thailand's Supachai Panitchpakdi as director-general of the World Trade Organisation (WTO). What implications does this hold for Africa's fortunes, in particular, and the Doha Round of trade liberalisation talks in general?
Bigger Sacu Could Lead the Way
By Peter Draper
22 August 2005, Business Day
THERE is much discussion in South African government circles about formulating an African development strategy. Many elements are being implemented by a multitude of government departments and agencies.
But one relatively new element should be high on the agenda: the possibility of expanding the Southern African Customs Union (Sacu).
Weaning States Off Subsidies
By Nkululeko Khumalo and Analisa Bala
19 August 2005, Business Day
EUROPEAN Commission draft plans to reform the decades-old “sugar regime” were finally unveiled in June, to the dismay of sugar producers from Europe’s former colonies.
The commission intends to cut guaranteed prices of white sugar 39% over four years. The plans are to be considered by the European Union (EU) council of ministers in November and will become policy only upon approval by member states. If fully implemented, the proposed cut is expected to cost African, Caribbean and Pacific sugar-producing countries an estimated €400m a year.
Compass and Energy Drink Needed for Reluctant Team Leader
By Peter Draper
11 August 2005, Business Report
If casual interactions over cocktails on the regional conference circuit are anything to go by, South Africa is the source of most of our region's problems.
Indeed, given its regional economic primacy, South Africa's diplomatic manoeuvres are closely watched, especially when it comes to the region.
Development through Trade - Business Day Exporter column - Aug05
By Peter Draper
Business Day Exporter, 01 August 2005
AGRICULTURAL goods accounts for less than 5% of our exports, while manufactured exports now occupy a central place. So while the media understandably fixates on the agriculture negotiations in the World Trade Organisation’s (WTO) Doha Round, SA's real export interests actually in the lie area of “non-agricultural market access” (NAMA).
Trading Up?
Peter Draper and Phil Alves
Mail & Guardian, 24 June 2005
Despite having been present at the creation of the general agreement on tariffs and trade (GATT), South Africa is a new actor on the global stage, and the architects of its trade strategy have to deal with increasingly challenging contradictions between the structure of the local economy and the rules of the global game.
Lamy's Tapestry Will be Complex
Peter Draper and Nkululeko Khumalo
Business Report, 22 May 2005
After a series of secretive consultations France’s Pascal Lamy, former EU trade commissioner, has emerged to succeed Supachai Panitchpakdi as World Trade Organisation (WTO) director-general from September.
Because of ongoing difficulties in the Doha round, the WTO's membership was eager to avoid a repeat of the 1999 election, which deadlocked for 10 months.
Break Down Africa's Barriers
Nkululeko Khumalo
Business Day, 10 May 2005
IN THE modern world of just-in-time production and delivery, the efficient flow of goods is critical for a trader to remain competitive in international markets. Complicated and unnecessary documentation and data requirements for imports and exports, as well as cumbersome customs and border-crossing procedures, are serious barriers to international trade. In some cases, losses to businesses from such inefficiency exceeds tariff costs.
Look to Singapore As an Alternative Trade and Investment Partner
Peter Draper and Lyal White
Business Day, 22 April 2005
Developing Asia is moving up South Africa’s strategic agenda. In recent months China and India have dominated the headlines as we move to commence free trade negotiations with them. Those processes, particularly that with China, is proving contentious. Partly in consequence, little attention has been paid to Southeast Asia.
What Opportunities for South African Traders?
Nkululeko Khumalo
Saitex, 11 April 2005
Much has been written about the Commission for Africa Report released on 11 March 2005 and there has been vigorous criticism of the various recommendations, specifically the aid component. But from a trade perspective, what opportunities does it offer South Africa’s traders and how will it boost intra-African trade and increase Africa’s share of diminishing world trade?
Role of WTO misunderstood
Peter Draper and Nkululeko Khumalo
Business Day, 8 March 2005
In the wake of the failed Cancun ministerial conference, World Trade Organisation (WTO) director-general Supachai Panitchpakdi called on members to do some 'soul-searching' to save the multilateral trading system from apparent impending doom. Former European Union trade commissioner Pascal Lamy’s branding of the institution as 'medieval' reflected deep-seated, widespread dissatisfaction with the way it works.
Armed with global support, this could be Africa's year: International Aid
Nkululeko Khumalo
Business Day, 6 January 2005
At a time when the international community is preoccupied with crises in Iraq, the Middle East, postwar reconstruction in Afghanistan and aid to countries hit by the Asian tsunami disaster, many commentators have justifiably concluded that Africa would be off the radar screens of donor countries save for limited military and humanitarian interventions in a few countries.
The Africa Commission - Comment
Peter Draper
Classic FM, ClassicBusinessDay (transcript), 17 January 2005
People say the way to empower Africa is to increase trade by bringing down trade barriers. Trade with Africa has actually fallen - as a share of international trade - over the last few years - at a time when it should be increasing. Commentary from Peter Draper at the SA Institute of International Affairs.
As China takes on a global role, will southern Africa benefit?
Peter Draper
Taipei Times, 28 December 2004
China and southern Africa have received growing international attention in recent years, but for very different reasons. As a rising, rapidly modernizing power, China - already a permanent member of the UN Security Council - is now on the verge of coveted G8 membership and a powerful role in the World Trade Organization.
Can India Deliver the Goods?
Phil Alves and Peter Draper
Mail & Guardian, 26 November 2004
Earlier this year, The Economist asked whether or not India's decade had at last arrived. Recent trends suggest it may be China's, but with an average gross domestic product growth rate of almost 6% since 1992, and predictions of 8% for the foreseeable future, few have bet against India's emergence as a global economic power.
Tread lightly around China: Trade treaties
Peter Draper
Business Day
12 October 2004
On current trends China will be an economic superpower within a generation. Therefore engaging China politically and recalibrating our economic policies towards her are absolute necessities. This logic underpins the South African government's decision to negotiate a free-trade area with China while conceding to it 'market economy status' in antidumping investigations. This negotiation will be conducted by all the countries of the Southern African Customs Union.
