The WTO’s November Ministerial Conference: What Prospects for a Doha Deal?
As the WTO approaches its fifteenth anniversary on 1 January 2010, the organization and its maiden round of multilateral trade negotiations – the Doha Development Agenda (DDA) – stand at a crossroads. Today, support for an open liberal trading system is neither consistent nor unambiguous. Riddled by many global challenges including the global economic recession with its associated collapse of world trade and the continuing spectre of protectionism, 2009 has been a lost year for the multilateral trading system. At their recent summit in Pittsburgh, leaders from the G20 countries therefore made another commitment to conclude the Doha Round in 2010, before US mid-term elections and elections in Brazil.
It is against this background that the WTO will hold its seventh Ministerial Conference in November 2009, the first such gathering since Hong Kong nearly four years ago. Unsurprisingly the Ministerial Conference is expected to shy away from tackling contentious Doha Round issues and to focus on structural matters that lie beyond the ambit of the current round, notwithstanding claims by the WTO Secretary-General Pascal Lamy that the Doha package is about 80% done. But some analysts believe that the November gathering may provide a political opportunity to push through key compromises that may lead to a conclusion of the round. Minimizing expectations works in the WTO’s favour, since no ‘collapse’ will be reported if there is no progress, but any small concession could be labeled a success. Those of a more cynical disposition believe the November meeting is nothing but an attempt to draw some attention to an institution that has suffered from insufficient publicity in 2009.
SAIIA together with the IGD hosted a high level workshop set against the backdrop of the WTO’s November Ministerial Conference. The workshop considered three issues: longer-term reform of the multilateral trading system; the focus of the November Ministerial and prospects for Doha deal-making; and potential impacts of a Doha compromise on industrial tariff cuts for South Africa and its SACU counterparts, especially with regard to the former’s industrial and development policies. The event was scheduled as follows:
Programme
09h30 – 09h40 Welcome and introduction
Moeletsi Mbeki, SAIIA
Dr Siphamandla Zondi, IGD [speech]
09h40 -11h00 Keynote Address: WTO Reform and Global Governance Issues
Randall Williams, the dti [speech]
11h00 – 11h15 Tea/Coffee Break
11h15 - 12h45 Session One: The WTO’s November Ministerial – Is it just
window dressing?
After a year of very few news headlines in multilateral trade, the WTO
will host its first Ministerial Conference in four years in November
2009. Very little discussion or progress on the Doha Round is
expected. Notwithstanding diminished expectations, some analysts
believe that the WTO’s gathering could provide a political opportunity
to push through key compromises that may lead to a conclusion of the
round. Those of a more cynical outlook believe the November
meeting is nothing but an attempt to draw some attention to an
institution that has suffered from insufficient publicity in 2009. What
can we expect from the Ministerial Conference? What surprise deals
are likely? And what are the challenges of global trade governance in
an increasingly multipolar world economy?
Moderator: Ximena Gonzalez-Nuñez, TIPS
Speaker: Dr Brendan Vickers, IGD [presentation]
Discussants: Dr Mills Soko, UCT;
Meluleki Nzimande, Partner –Webber Wentzel
12h45 - 13h30 Lunch
13h30- 15h30 Session Two: What are the potential implications of a WTO
NAMA deal for South Africa and SACU?
There is a lot at stake for South Africa in the WTO’s non-agricultural
market access (NAMA) negotiations, since any agreement on this
issue will inevitably have a significant bearing on the country’s
industrial policy. Furthermore, as a member of SACU that includes
one least-developed country (Lesotho) and three small vulnerable
economies (Botswana, Namibia and Swaziland), South Africa seeks
to preserve its future development options by keeping tariff cuts to a
minimum. Together with its fellow NAMA-11 group of developing
countries, South Africa continues to resist what are perceived to be
‘too radical’ tariff cuts demanded by developed countries. But for how
long will the NAMA-11 stay the course? What is the future of South
Africa’s industrial policy in light of progressive multilateral
liberalisation? Will deeper NAMA liberalisation really hurt the South
African economy? What about other SACU countries – are they
equally worried by NAMA talks?
Moderator: Catherine Grant, BUSA
Speaker: Thabo Chauke, the dti [presentation]
Discussants: Dr Roman Grynberg, BIDPA, Botswana;
Tengo Tengela, NUMSA
15h30 – 15h45 Concluding remarks and closure
Peter Draper, SAIIA
