After the political dust-up in Libya: deepening the Europe-Africa dialogue
Diplomatic Pouch
On the eve of the first year anniversary of the Arab uprisings, it is useful to reflect on the state of EU-Africa relations, particularly in the aftermath of the prominent role played by key EU member states in Libya. Under the weight of United Nations Security Resolution 1973, which validated an intervention led by the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), Colonel Muammar Gaddafi met his death brutally on 20 October 2011 at the hands of his fellow citizens. This marked the end of Gaddafi's tempestuous relationship with the West, oscillating through various cycles - from a dangerous bogeyman in the 1980s, to ally from the late 1990s, and ultimately to the default mode of 'supreme leader' and dictator in 2011, capable of inflicting a large scale massacre on fellow Libyans in Benghazi. If Gaddafi was a pantomime villain leader in much of the West and generally unwelcome in many Arab states, public opinion in Sub-Saharan Africa showed a mixture of solidarity and compassion for Gaddafi's Libya.
African Solutions and Twitter Revolutions
Diplomatic Pouch
The Arab Spring brought about regime change in three African states – Tunisia, Egypt and Libya. Popular uprisings in other states — Algeria, Angola, Cameroon, Gabon, Burkina Faso, Malawi, Morocco and Swaziland — underscored growing public dissatisfaction about the state of governance in their countries. These events served as a re-confirmation that African citizens will not tolerate oppressive and authoritarian rule. However, short of taking to the streets, when societies believe that the ballot box will serve to subvert rather than validate their concerns, does Africa have other tools to advance governance reforms in the region, hold politicians accountable and entrench democracy?
South Africa’s development partnership agency: A burden or blessing?
Diplomatic Pouch
Sub-Saharan Africa needs to step up and move with the times
Diplomatic Pouch
Fresh from attending the World Economic Forum’s summer Davos in Dalian, China, I feel relatively good to be African. Our traditional European trading partners are undergoing sweeping economic changes and the prospect of sustained declines in standards of living. The US may be on the cusp of a double-dip recession and is mired in a destructive ideological fight over budgets, debt and more. New centres of economic power are engaging with us through trade and investment. Growth in sub-Saharan Africa is rapid in many countries, and likely to be sustained. Yet we cannot be complacent. Two broad, contradictory trends are at work in the global economy.
What Does BRICS mean for China?
Diplomatic Pouch
After more than 30 years of reform and opening up, China under its fourth generation of leadership faces a big challenge to both manage its development and define its world role. Globally, with its growing influence and interests in the international system, China increasingly faces the question of how to use its power judiciously and protect its interests worldwide. Domestically, China needs to address the negative side effects of rapid economic growth over past decades to pursue a more sustainable growth path. It is against this backdrop that China proposed its peaceful development and harmonious world theories to reassure the rest of the world of its peaceful intentions and future world vision. In the current phase, China’s external engagements are becoming more actively cooperative and pro-active.
Libya: A lost opportunity for the African Union
Diplomatic Pouch
In life realities on the ground often lay waste to the best-laid plans. So has it been for the AU in the Libyan crisis. Since the rebels entered Tripoli on August 21 the hand-wringing around the AU’s marginalisation by Nato during the campaign has reached a crescendo. In that period, the Transitional National Council (TNC) has been recognised as the legitimate government in Libya by many states, including 20 from Africa; there has been a diplomatic flurry of activity on both sides of the Mediterranean with pledges for reconstruction assistance… and oil contracts; and the Libya Contact Group met in Istanbul – all this before the AU’s Peace and Security Council meeting on August 25 and 26. Has the AU lost another opportunity and how did it come to be much less important than the Arab League on the Libyan question?
Walmart in South Africa: Creating Jobs through its Sustainable Fish Policy
Diplomatic Pouch
Walmart’s investment in South Africa has accounted for numerous headlines during the past months. However, one of the less reported stories is how the company’s sustainable seafood policies are contributing to employment in South Africa by sustainably exploiting South Africa’s fish resources. In July 2011, Lonrho, announced that its South African headquartered seafood division, Oceanfresh, would be supplying hake fillets to 500 Walmart stores in the United States by October 2011. The agreement is expected to create over 100 direct jobs and many more indirect jobs in South Africa as Oceanfresh expands its production capabilities to meet the new orders.
Unrest in Malawi: An Economic Perspective
Diplomatic Pouch
On Wednesday 20 July 2011, 80 civil society organisations in Malawi held a protest against the government’s handling of the economy. The protests turned violent following efforts by the police to restrain the march. Nineteen people were killed in the three main towns of Mzuzu, Lilongwe and Blantyre. Some shops were looted and cars, including those of privately-owned radio stations, were scorched.
One year after the World Cup: Africa and South Africa on the international playing field.
Diplomatic Pouch
This time last year the world was watching an event unfold in Africa. The eyes of the world were not fixed on Africa because a civil war was unfolding or genocide was committed by a callous regime. The fixation was caused by ‘the beautiful game’ being played as South Africa hosted the 2010 FIFA World Cup. This was a proud moment for South Africa and the continent. During the presentation of the South African bid on the 14 May 2004, Thabo Mbeki said that millions of Africans on the continent and the African Diaspora had ‘embarked on an exciting human journey. This is a journey away from conflict, repression and endemic poverty’. During his presentation to the executive committee of FIFA in 2008, Mbeki remarked that the Soccer World Cup “is an African journey of hope”.1
World Oceans Day: Balancing commercial and environmental needs
Diplomatic Pouch
June 8th is World Oceans Day, an opportunity to reflect on the condition of the world’s oceans and our broader relationship with the environment. Across many fronts the news is not good. Yet in certain cases governments, NGOs and resource users have come together to form effective partnerships, proving that oceans can bounce back if given an opportunity.
Anton Hammerl – A casualty of Libya’s ‘un-civil’ war
Diplomatic Pouch
Armed conflicts, whether big or small, create confusion as social life is disrupted by acts of organised violence. Libya’s rapid descent from street protests to armed conflict caused the country’s cities to deteriorate into blown-out ghost towns in a matter of weeks. Under conditions of conflict where belligerents lob grenades, fire bullets and bombard each other with artillery shells, the flow of information is also disrupted. It was amid the dust and bullet-ridden confusion of Libya’s battlefronts that South African born photographer, Anton Hammerl, disappeared.
The UN Security Council: Is South Africa ready for the prime time?
Diplomatic Pouch
It is nearly four months since the rebellion started in Libya and it seems that the intervention sanctioned by the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) has reached a stalemate. Muammar Gaddafi is still in power and while the rebels have kept their ground they have not made a significant advance on Tripoli.Thousands of civilians have lost their lives and the cost of the military campaign to the United States alone is said to be in excess of $750 million. Could the governments that voted in favour of Resolution 1973 have foreseen the stalemate and the protracted nature of the campaign? To be more specific, did South Africa foresee that our ‘yes’ vote would contribute to the seemingly endless bombardment of Libyan targets without a decisive outcome?
Syria: Many factors mitigate against the revolt
Diplomatic Pouch
Since the long series of public holidays began, I have been called on by the electronic media to comment many times on developments in Syria. For a long time it seemed to be the only remaining large state in the Middle East unaffected by the turmoil and violence of the so-called “Arab spring”. Why was that, I kept asking. And why has it all changed as suddenly as change came to other states in the region and North Africa?
Côte d’Ivoire: Gbagbo as anti-imperialist hero is mistaken
Diplomatic Pouch
With the conflict now ostensibly over in Ivory Coast, attention is now sure to turn to the blame game. For former President Laurent Gbagbo, and others who are likely to stand trial, it is not just the history books which are at stake, but their future freedom.
Côte d’Ivoire: The Battle of Abidjan
Diplomatic Pouch
As the dust starts to settle on a devastated and traumatised Abidjan, attention has focused on Alassane Ouattara, now the effective, as well as elective, leader of the country. Common views in the international media are that he has to play the reconciliation card, and probably form a government of national unity to appease those who fear exclusion.
17 years since the genocide: Rwanda’s journey
Diplomatic Pouch
In April 2011, in the midst of upheavals and revolutions in the Middle East and North Africa, Rwandans commemorate the seventeenth anniversary of the Rwandan genocide - a period of 100 days during which over a million Rwandans were slaughtered. Although the country has made significant gains in reforming its socio-economic landscape and achieving increased gender parity, many observers argue that this has come at the expense of core political freedoms.
Côte d'Ivoire: The Spectre of Warlordism
Diplomatic Pouch
The slide towards civil war in Côte d’Ivoire looks, on the face of it, like a fight between two men in business suits. One refuses to leave power and the other wants to exercise the right bestowed on him by the country’s voters and take over as president.
Arab democracy at stake while royals protect their crown jewels
Diplomatic Pouch
Geopolitics concerns the projection of power and influence across regional or global political-economic and social spaces. For this reason, the Gulf Cooperation Council’s (GCC) decision to dispatch Saudi Arabian armed forces, and police from the UAE to Bahrain, does not bode well for the budding flowers of democracy trying bloom in the region.
What are the Prospects for a Renaissance of Economic Liberalism
Diplomatic Pouch
The global economic crisis marked the end of a thirty-year chapter of economic liberalism, and opened a new one of Big Government. Twenty-first century illiberalism spread around the world. But its effects have sparked a backlash. In the US, the Tea Party movement and the Republican victory in mid-term elections signalled the electorate’s repudiation of the most leftist president and Democratic Congress since Lyndon Johnson’s Great Society. In Europe, some governments are trying to return to prudent management of public finances.
South Africa: mining revenue, transparency and the EITI
Diplomatic Pouch
On 2 March 2011, the Extractive Industry Transparency Initiative (EITI) convened its fifth global conference in Paris, France. South Africa was represented at the conference by Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan, who chaired one of the key panels. Is this perhaps an indication that South Africa is reconsidering its participation in the EITI?
Zuma’s Paris visit – the Africa background
Diplomatic Pouch
President Jacob Zuma will land in Paris on 02 March just three days after French President Sarkozy has operated a major cabinet re-shuffle. Rated very low in the polls, but still facing a disorganised opposition, the re-shuffle has all the hallmarks of his opening gambit for the presidential elections next year.
Libya’s Oil Makes all the Difference
Diplomatic Pouch
As a new wave of democratisation breaks on Africa’s northern shores, the common goals of the Maghreb’s people are hitting up against starkly different types of state. The situation in Libya is different from Egypt and Tunisia is two respects. First, is the ruthless personality of Libya’s leader, Muammar Gaddafi.
First Egypt, and now Yemen’s Lethal Political Cocktail is on the Boil
Diplomatic Pouch
While the world’s attention is focused on scenes of barricades in central Cairo, the political and media spotlight has finally come to illuminate the social crisis underlying the Arab worlds’ dictatorial regimes. In 2008, Queen Rania of Jordan warned that unemployed youth in the Arab world constitute a ‘ticking time bomb’ which, if not diffused, could lead to social unrest. She was correct, if events in Tunisia and Egypt are anything to go by.
Parliament: Reclaiming its position in 2011?
Diplomatic Pouch
Unlike the Egyptian proto-revolution playing out across the world’s television screens, the South African Parliament’s own Prague Spring may have come and gone almost imperceptibly.
The post-1994 Parliaments can be periodised neatly. Replete with political galacticos, the founding democratic Parliament was characterised by political energy, vital debate and legislative renewal.
What will Uganda’s Elections mean for Parliamentary Oil Governance?
Diplomatic Pouch
Next month Ugandans will go to the polls for presidential and parliamentary elections. It is an interesting time for a changing of the guard in Parliament, as Uganda will soon be the latest oil-producing country on the continent. Tullow Oil Plc, the London-based company leading oil development in the country, recently increased its figures for proven reserves to 1 billion barrels, representing billions of dollars in potential government revenue. Already there are concerns over a lack of transparency and government accountability related to oil agreements and revenues. What role is Parliament expected to play in holding the Executive to account and ensuring greater transparency in the oil sector?
How will South Africa Talk Democracy without a Free Press?
Diplomatic Pouch
The fate of media self-regulation in South Africa now rests with parliament. At inception, South Africa’s post-apartheid press laws and regulatory framework were moulded on international precedent established by thriving democracies such as the United Kingdom and New Zealand. Supported by the one of the world’s most liberal constitutions, South Africa seems to be failing to uphold these high standards. Will South Africa show the world that it is still committed to media freedom?
The G20’s Seoul Summit
Diplomatic Pouch
The dust is now settling on the Seoul summit. Its outcomes were predictable. On the negative side of the balance sheet there was no substantive agreement on resolving global imbalances thus presaging continuation of the ‘currency wars’; and no substantive agreement on bringing the marathon Doha round of WTO negotiations to a successful close.
Is Nationalisation the Answer?
Diplomatic Pouch
Cuba and its revolution have long been emotional reference points for revolutionary cadres in South Africa. This sentimental attachment relates to, among others, its support for the ANC alliance during the liberation struggle and more specifically its role in Angola, which brought Cuban troops into direct confrontation with the South African Defence Force before the peace agreement of 1989.
Development and Climate Change...Convergent or Divergent? A Look at South Africa’s Coal Dependency and its Green Targets
Diplomatic Pouch
Climate change mitigation is a difficult process for developing nations because immediate and urgent developmental concerns, such as poverty eradication and economic growth, often appear to be at odds with long-term climate concerns.
China’s Exceptionalism in Africa: from Rhetorical to Substantive Difference?
Diplomatic Pouch
The emergence of China as Africa’s top trading partner and a leading source of foreign investment in 2009, surpassing the United States and key European Union states still struggling in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, has sharpened the focus on Chinese aspiration and conduct in Africa1.
The African Peer Review Mechanism: Positive Governance Strides in the Right Direction?
Diplomatic Pouch
On 24 July 2010, Africa’s leaders gathered for the 13th meeting of the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM) Forum, on the shores of Lake Victoria. Observers were watching closely for signals of the health and future trajectory of this process.
India–South Africa Relations through the shadow of Nehru–Mbeki legacies
Diplomatic Pouch
This year 2010 marks 150 years of the arrival of Indians in South Africa. This historic bond continues to shape relations between the two countries. Recently, President Zuma led a high-powered delegation that included 200 businessmen to India, signaling the seriousness with which South Africa takes its foreign relations with this country.
Thabo Mbeki and the Long Talk to the Referendum in Southern Sudan
Diplomatic Pouch
On the 10th of July, Khartoum was not only pummelled by the usual desert heat. In the Friendship Hall which overlooks the Blue Nile, the hot issue of the relationship between South and North Sudan came under the spotlight at the official launch of the post-referendum talks between the National Congress Party (NCP) and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM). Former South African president Thabo Mbeki, acting in his capacity as Chair of the African Union High Implementation Panel (AUHIP), paved the way for the talks by presenting four possible scenarios of the form post-referendum relations between North and South Sudan can take.
Does Not Awarding African Governance Prize Signal Downward Spiral?
Diplomatic Pouch
Amid the excitement of the 2010 FIFA World Cup, an announcement by the Mo Ibrahim Foundation in June 2010 that it has again decided not to award its lucrative annual governance prize this year went almost unnoticed, at least in
The DRC at 50 - Confronting the challenges of peace and territorial consolidation
Diplomatic Pouch
The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) celebrates 50 years of independence from colonial rule today. At fifty, the country is torn between competing and contradictory internal forces as it tries to negotiate a path towards self-understanding, internal cohesion and responsible behaviour. At this landmark event in its post-colonial history, the DRC has to confront old wounds that create new policy challenges in a complex political-economic environment.
The Philippines General Elections Observed
Diplomatic Pouch
On 8 June the Speaker of the Philippines House of Representatives announced the result of the presidential election on 10 May. The front-runner in provisional poll results, Benigno “NoyNoy” Aquino III, was declared the winner and was formally proclaimed President-elect by the House on 9 June and will assume office on 30 June. He obtained over 15 million votes as compared to the nearest of his seven opponents, Joseph Estrada, who received nearly 9,5 million.
Zuma is proving to be more than just a ‘domestic president’
Diplomatic Pouch
At the end of President Zuma’s first year in the Union Buildings, one could well ask what are the emerging trends defining his presidency. Although there have been numerous attempts to do so with respect to his domestic priorities, analysis of an emerging “Zuma Foreign Policy” continues to be limited to the hypothetical.
Forthcoming Visit of Deputy President Motlanthe to Turkey
Diplomatic Pouch
Later this month South Africa’s Deputy President, Kgalema Motlanthe, is due to lead a delegation of ministers, business people, media representatives and officials to Turkey. While relations between the two countries, together with trade, investment and tourism, have been growing slowly since diplomatic ties were established in the early nineties, this visible reaffirmation of the importance the Zuma administration and its top leaders attach to developing the potential and value that such relations hold for South Africa is to be applauded.
Trade lessons for Africa in the aftermath of the flight disruptions.
Diplomatic Pouch
The week long flight ban across the North European air space had, prior to its lifting started to create apprehension as to its economic effects. This did not happen only in Europe but in other countries that trade with Europe including Africa. The flight ban was imposed by European governments after a volcano in Iceland, Eyjafjallajokull, erupted and spewed volcanic ash into the skies.
All Hands on Deck for Defence at the IBSA Summit: Rethinking South Africa’s Position
Diplomatic Pouch
The IBSA conference held last week in Brazil provided a useful opportunity to asses the value of this evolving trilateral framework in fostering broad and deep cooperation among the three partners on a variety of fronts. An area that is often neglected but which remains a salient component of the wider agenda is defence.
Asian Values and African Choices
Diplomatic Pouch
The economic rise of Asia has provoked an intermittent intellectual struggle that posits "Asian values" as opposed to Western ways. This debate masks the most under-discussed story of recent decades: Asia has risen through the creative embrace of key Western values, Western science and many aspects of governance – not through their rejection.
Will oil build or break Ghana's democracy?
Diplomatic Pouch
Will commercial oil production (due to begin later this year) build or break the back of Ghana’s democracy? This may seem an unnecessarily inflammatory question, but history demonstrates that healthy caution is necessary in managing oil revenues. Ghana, however, has made history by hosting a series of free and fair elections in recent years. Twice the opposition party has won and the incumbent has stepped down in a display of due respect for democracy. This is groundbreaking progress as less than a handful of African countries have attained such a benchmark of democratic consolidation.
The Congo Basin Forest Partnership: Together, Shaping the World of the Future
Diplomatic Pouch
On 11 and 12 November 2009, the sixth plenary session of the Congo Basin Forest Partnership (CBFP) took place in Yaoundé, Cameroon. This high-level meeting brought together delegates from the Central African Forests Commission (COMIFAC) countries as well as major development partners, certain international NGOs, international organisations and private sector representatives. One month ahead of the Copenhagen Conference, these delegates gathered around an issue central to the broader climate change agenda, namely forestry. Forestry is central not least because avoided deforestation in tropical forest areas, such as the Congo Basin, has been identified as a priority option for mitigating climate change. The world seems to agree that tropical forests are important. However, how this importance should translate into action is a subject of much debate.
Trade Policy Trajectory in South Africa
Diplomatic Pouch
Against the backdrop of the global economic crunch and the local economy’s recession, there is a fierce debate on South Africa’s (SA) trade policy trajectory. These matters have moved into sharp relief in light of the government’s decision to raise import tariffs on certain clothing items. Clothing, long the lightening rod for these debates, sees some trade experts, economists and actors in the tripartite alliance exhibiting a desire to tightly control trade policy; others support further trade liberalisation.
The Africa South America Summit, 27-28 September 2009
Diplomatic Pouch
The second Africa South America summit, hosted by President Hugo Chavez of Venezuela formed the third part of a triangle of events, starting with the General Debate at the opening of the 64th Session of the UN General Assembly in New York, followed immediately by the third summit of the G20 Financial in Pittsburgh.
Do the EU and South Africa Speak the Same Language of Peace and Security in Africa?
Diplomatic Pouch
Promoting peace and security in Africa is one of the goals of the EU-South Africa strategic partnership. Ongoing conflict in Darfur, Sudan and the crisis in Zimbabwe were high on the agenda of the 1st EU-South Africa summit held in July last year in Bordeaux, France, under the auspices of presidents Sarkozy and Mbeki. These issues were raised again this year at the 2nd EU-South Africa summit held in Cape Town on 11 September. At an academic forum held on the fringes of this summit, the question was asked whether the Zuma presidency has brought about a closer alignment of views with the EU on these most divisive cases in Africa. Are South Africa and the EU speaking the same language when it comes to peace and security in Africa?
Gabonese Election Aftermath Confirms Worrying Trends in African Politics
Diplomatic Pouch
The Gabonese Minister of Interior’s announcement that Ali-Ben Bongo Ondimba, candidate for the ruling Gabonese Democratic Party (PDG) and son of Gabon’s late President Omar Bongo, has won the 30 August presidential election came as no surprise to many Gabonese and observers of the country’s politics. The final tally gave Bongo 41.7 percent of the vote, with the main contenders, Andre Mba Obame and Pierre Mambounda receiving 25.8 and 25.2 percent respectively. But in the country, this verdict has been met with protests in the streets of the capital, Libreville, and clashes with police in other towns as opposition supporters question the outcome.
Term Limits – Who Needs Them?
Diplomatic Pouch
President Mamadou Tandja of Niger has joined the club of leaders who have overturned constitutions to overstay their welcome in recent years. Following victory in the referendum held on 4 August, he is the twelfth African leader in a decade to engineer a third term of office. Has the tide turned against the ‘third wave’ of democratization in Africa?
Reflecting on SADC Day
Diplomatic Pouch
The Southern African Development Community (SADC) has a vision of a common future. This will be one of prosperity for all, peace, justice, and security. Its vision is “anchored on the common values and principles and the historical and cultural affinities that exist amongst the peoples of Southern Africa”. On SADC day, 17 August, we can reflect on how this regional integration programme is coming along.
Africa: Taking the Gap in Modern Economic Theory
Diplomatic Pouch
The air is clearing after the spectacular financial crisis, markets are once again picking up, but will it be business as usual? Modern economic theory has been shaken to its roots, and its core assumptions are undergoing serious revision. What does this mean to Africa?
Are We Sleepwalking Into a Surveillance Society?
Diplomatic Pouch
From 1 July 2009 cellphone service providers in South Africa cannot activate a new SIM card without the full name, address and identity number of the customer. Existing SIM cards must be registered within 18 months. The new registration law is aimed at assisting law enforcement agencies to investigate and combat serious crime by ensuring that the identity and whereabouts of every SIM card owner is known to foil and investigate criminal activity. Customer information must be kept in a secure database for a minimum of three years, accessible only to selected personnel. But does monitoring criminal activity threaten our right to privacy, and more particularly, will it actually help to combat crime?
Russian President Medvedev's Visit to Africa, June 2009
Diplomatic Pouch
In a short period of less than a month, Russia has sought to assert its role in international forums as a leading player in a multipolar world. This objective is informed by the nationalistic view of its contemporary history initiated by Vladimir Putin, and holds that a unipolar world should no longer be dominated by a single hyper-power, the United States.
Looking Beyond Conflict and Economic Crisis in the DRC
Diplomatic Pouch
The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) on 30 June was one year short of its 50th anniversary of independence. In the current political and economic context, this year’s mood was reflective rather than celebratory. The anniversary day was therefore an opportune time for the South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA)’s Governance of Africa’s Resources Programme (GARP) to hold a roundtable discussion on the DRC. Attended by members of the governmental, diplomatic, academic, policy-making and business community, the event was aptly titled “Reviewing the Giant” and focused on the mining and forestry sectors.
Protesting in 140 keystrokes: Twitter and the Iranian Unrest
Diplomatic Pouch
When Twitter – the world’s latest social networking phenomenon – made the cover of Time Magazine’s 15 June edition, journalist Steve Johnson mused ‘Just 140 characters? I wonder if I could use that to start a political uprising.’ On that Monday morning, news of unrest in
APRM Forum in Libya: Few Surprises, Unanswered Questions
Diplomatic Pouch
A day ahead of this year’s African Union summit in Libya, the 11th meeting of the forum of the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM) took place in the sweltering seaside town of Sirte. Reports emerging from those who attended threw up few surprises and some lingering concerns.
The African Peer Review Mechanism – Progress and Prospects
Diplomatic Pouch
On 30 June 2009, as African leaders gather on the sweltering, dusty shores of the Mediterranean in Sirte, the hometown of Libyan President Muammar al-Gaddafi, for the 13th Summit of the African Union, some early birds will attend another vital meeting on the fringes. Participating heads of states will attend the 11th Forum of the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM), Africa’s voluntary home-grown governance monitoring endeavour. What’s on the agenda? And where is the mechanism heading?
Attracting the Youth Vote
Diplomatic Pouch
After their third landslide victory, the African National Congress now occupies 264 of the 400 seats in South Africa's parliament. In the post-mortem of the April 2009 polls, many of the opposition parties who won only a handful of seats will probably be left wondering how they got it all wrong. The ANC's firm grip on the majority is not only due to their advantageous position of incumbency and their resources, but also their efficient and energetic campaign. Opposition parties seem to have misjudged their electorate by adopting inadequate campaign strategies.
Reckoning with the APRM Recommendations
Diplomatic Pouch
The African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM) aims to promote 'good governance' in Africa, through systematic reviews of a state's governance practices and subsequent recommendations, made by the APRM's Panel of Eminent Persons in each report, on how to improve them. Deliberately styled as a 'peer review', it encourages representatives from different African countries (and ultimately an assembly of the participating Heads of State - the APR Forum), to interrogate each country's problems and to propose solutions.
The Lessons of April 22: Ballots vs. Bullets
Diplomatic Pouch
Wednesday 22 April 2009 will be remembered by many in Africa an historic day. Almost 80% of eligible voters in South Africa went to the polls peacefully in a national election to choose their fourth government since the watershed elections in 1994 that established a non-racial democracy in the country. This marked another triumph of the ballot over other forms of changing leaders in a continent that has suffered coups and assassinations over the past half-century. South Africans should be congratulated for this achievement, and Africans should learn valuable lessons from them in this regard.
Support for Zimbabwe’s Recovery: A Lost Opportunity for SADC?
Diplomatic Pouch
It has been over a month now since the unity government in Zimbabwe published proposals to dig the country out of the economic hole it has been languishing in over the best part of the past decade. The plan, named STERP (Short-Term Economic Recovery Plan) has been discussed and endorsed by the Southern African Development Community (SADC), the fourteen-member organization of countries in the region that was instrumental in facilitating the Global Political Agreement that gave birth to the unity government in Zimbabwe.
The More Things Change: What Zuma's Presidency Means for the Rest of Africa
Diplomatic Pouch
In a little over two weeks, Jacob Zuma will be sworn in as fourth president of South Africa since the advent of democracy in 1994.
At home, his presidency is viewed ambivalently - either as a breath of fresh air or as a worrying development for constitutionalism in South Africa. His supporters are quick to magnify former president Mbeki's aloofness and policy failures on crime, employment creation and HIV/AIDS as compelling evidence that a more affable and down-to-earth Jacob Zuma is indeed just what South Africa needs. His detractors associate the former deputy president with personal moral failure, corruption and a belief in populism: perhaps unjustly, given that question marks attached to his character are often linked to failed litigation against the incoming president.
Human Rights and Wrongs
Diplomatic Pouch
Aghast, betrayed and angry describe the reactions of many South Africans to their government's refusal of a visa to the Dalai Lama. They describe, too, widely held views on the role that South Africa has played on the UN Security Council, the UN Human Rights Council, and in respect of the crisis in Zimbabwe. Why, many are asking, has South Africa squandered its enormous moral capital and its commitment to human rights to side with some very questionable regimes?
Election Manifestos: Time for a Different Approach
Diplomatic Pouch
With the tempo of electioneering gathering pace in South Africa in preparation for the April 22 poll, one cannot but wonder what difference the frenetic efforts of politicians and their spin-doctors actually make to the voter. In 2009 alone, at least twenty countries on the continent are going to hold elections of some sort - from presidential to municipal. Do election manifestos provide sufficient guidance for voters to make a choice among the competing parties? Do they contain enough information, and particularly specific undertakings by the parties on what they would do if elected into government? And can parties deliver on the promises? A public debate in Johannesburg a fortnight ago on the issue carried the title "Election Manifestos: Sound and Fury Signifying Nothing?"
Multiple Truths and No Reconciliation: the International Criminal Court not yet in Sudan
Diplomatic Pouch
From an international criminal law perspective, the warrant of arrest for Sudanese President Omar Hassan al-Bashir, issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC) on 4 March 2009 is a historic document.
Has South Africa’s Foreign Policy Influence Peaked?
Diplomatic Pouch
Has South Africa's foreign policy influence peaked? If the current state of our nation is difficult to divine, then assessing the state of the country's international relations is even more perplexing. A clutch of institutional, conjunctural and structural issues challenge the effectiveness of South Africa's foreign policy, all of which demand sober consideration.
Prioritising Energy Security in Southern Africa
Diplomatic Pouch
Two key issues emerged from the tenth Southern Africa Energy conference, held in Sandton Johannesburg from 10 - 12 February 2009. These were the urgent need to hasten regional energy integration and the need for Africa to properly strategise on and harness the role of financial markets in the quest for energy security.
Gaza: is there a Solution?
Diplomatic Pouch
As soon as Barack Obama took over the Oval office as the 44th President of the United States and Hillary Clinton entered her Eighth Floor office at the State Department, it was clear that immediate action on the ongoing Palestinian-Israeli feud was one of the incoming administration's most urgent challenges.
A Stitch out of Time? Africa's Solution to the Zimbabwean Crisis
Diplomatic Pouch
Seeking 'African solutions to African problems' is frequently adopted as a mantra to conflict resolution by a curious partnership of African leaders eager to prove their capacity to meet their own challenges, and western powers who have historically been eager to help Africa along but increasingly prefer to let Africans clean up after their own mess or dig themselves in deeper. African solution efforts draw widespread scepticism from observers who have witnessed the African Union (AU) struggle to resolve conflicts in trouble spots such as Sudan's Darfur region, and among Africa's traditional Western donors who have poured aid into Africa with modest results for over six decades. Whether African leaders can indeed solve their own problems is less certain. What does the recently-concluded diplomatic resolution to the Zimbabwe crisis teach us?
"Helping" Africa
Diplomatic Pouch
Particular moments - like Barack Obama's presidential inauguration - seem wired with history. Expectations are high that he will be a natural friend of Africa. Could his presidency be the historical moment in which Africa assumes its place in the world?
20 January, 2009: The Inauguration of Barack Obama as President of the United States
Diplomatic Pouch
SAIIA was delighted to host then Senator Barack Obama in 2006. He was inaugurated as the 44th President of the United States of America on the 20th of January 2009
The recent election of Barack Obama as President of the United States was dubbed, in Cape Town on the morning of 5 November, 2008, as ‘America's Mandela Moment' by United States Consul General Alberta Mayberry. Although the parallel is not exact, there will be a similar international euphoria accompanying the inauguration of Barack Obama and his Vice President, Joseph Biden, on Tuesday, 20 January, 2009 at 12 noon in Washington, DC (or 7 pm, South African time).
The G-20 Meeting in Washington November 14-15 2008
Diplomatic Pouch
On the eve of the G20 meeting in Washington, SAIIA is releasing a Policy Briefing entitled "Towards a new ‘Washington consensus'? South Africa, the G20 leaders' summit, and the financial crisis" by Peter Draper.
China-Africa Trade and the Global Financial Crisis
Diplomatic Pouch
The spectacular growth of emerging economies, especially China and India, had brought major hope among commentators/analysts that the developing world's growth prospects would not be severely affected by the current financial crisis in the US and most of the developed world. Sino-Africa trade had reached $72 billion in the first eight months of 2008, a 62% increase from the previous year.
Economic Partnership Agreements and Intellectual Property Rights protection: challenges for the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region
Diplomatic Pouch
The negotiations for Economic Partnerships Agreements (EPAs) between African Caribbean and Pacific countries (ACP) and the European Union (EU) were launched in 2000.These negotiations were carried out in terms of the Cotonou Agreement which seeks to replace non reciprocal trade preferences (under the Lome Agreement), which the ACP countries have been receiving from the EU. The aim was to conclude full and comprehensive agreements by the end of 2007 so as to meet the deadline for bringing the EU's preferential trade arrangements for goods with the ACP countries into conformity with the World Trade Organization's (WTO) General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT).
Peer Review Progress, but Many Miss the Meeting
Diplomatic Pouch
Last weekend, the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM) was in the spotlight in Benin. From 25-26 October 2008, participating African Heads of State and Government gathered in Cotonou for the first Extraordinary African Peer Review Forum. Most Forum meetings are traditionally held on the margins of busy African Union Summits, where other business frequently intervenes. In Egypt in June-July, Zimbabwe dominated. This time, the APRM was squarely the focus. But do the benefits of a longer, more in-depth stand-alone meeting outweigh notoriously poor attendance?
Africom
Diplomatic Pouch
On 1 October 2008 the US military's African Command was launched in Washington DC. Two weeks later a similar ceremony took place at Africom's headquarters in Stuttgart.
What is Africom and why has its creation been so controversial and met with suspicion in some African countries?
Lesotho's Lessons for the ANC on Forming New Parties
Diplomatic Pouch
Following Thabo Mbeki's abrupt resignation as South African president last month, there has been much speculation about the possibility and desirability of a new political party emerging from disgruntled ruling party members. Further resignations of Gauteng premier Mbhazima Shilowa and several cabinet members, hostile open letters between senior African National Congress (ANC) leaders and statements by others that would follow or vote for another party (other than existing opposition parties), have fuelled the fire. The discussion has revolved around two points: that significant elements of the party have felt sidelined at least since the December 2007 ANC Congress in Polokwane, where Mbeki lost leadership of the party to Jacob Zuma; and that democracy in South Africa would benefit from a credible and strong party with a broad national base to challenge the ANC. However, experience from Lesotho might provide lessons for South Africa on the prospects of a breakaway party.
Tension between the West and Russia: Implications for Africa
Diplomatic Pouch
The world is currently concerned with redefining Western-Russian relations in the wake of the Georgian conflict. The press has even been discussing the possibility of a ‘new' Cold War. If this materialises, what would be the implications for Africa?
Adding Value to African Peer Review
Diplomatic Pouch
On 22 September 2008, the United Nations in New York holds a high-level meeting on ‘Africa's Development Needs'. Important components will be the development of governance, and the governance of development. And none is more significant than the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM).
South Africa and the General Assembly's 63rd Session
Diplomatic Pouch
The 63rd Session of the General Assembly, which opened this Tuesday, 16 September 2008, will surely be of particular significance to President Thabo Mbeki. Not only will his address to the General Assembly Session - on 24 September 2008 - be his last as President of South Africa, but the Session will no doubt be of great importance, given its focus on the African Agenda as well as the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).
What Angola's Election Means
Diplomatic Pouch
Recent elections in Angola help indicate the direction of democracy in Africa. Seen alongside other developments, they suggest that progress is being made in building democracy, but this is only part of the governance equation. Angola faces challenges far beyond the parliamentary election this September.
African Elections: Real Choice, or No Change?
Diplomatic Pouch
Africa faces a spate of parliamentary and presidential polls before the end of the year. Angola, Rwanda and Swaziland will vote in September, Zambia and Côte d'Ivoire (if it happens) in November, and Ghana in December. But will any of them offer genuine choice or real change for citizens? Despite many excellent governance standards ratified by parliaments across the continent, and reform initiatives like the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM) to which all these states - except Swaziland and Côte d'Ivoire - have acceded, many African elections are becoming more fractious, rigged and violent than ever, especially where the result is close. Or they produce landslides for ruling regimes.
Turkey's Outreach To Africa
Diplomatic Pouch
Fifty African heads of state and government, or their representatives, participated in the first Turkish-African Summit held in Istanbul from 18-20 August 2008[1]. Hosted by Turkish President Abdullah Gül and attended by UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and Jean Ping, the Chairperson of the African Union Commission, South Africa was represented by Deputy President Phumzile Mlambo-Ncuka. In her address to the summit, the South African deputy president spoke in very positive terms of Turkey and the role it can play in Africa's development.[2]
Is Africa Changing China?
Diplomatic Pouch
‘There is always something new out of Africa.' So said Pliny the Elder two thousand years ago when considering Rome's changing fortunes as it sought to manage its ties with the African continent. The spectacle of foreigners intent on pursuing their interests in Africa - be they commercial gains, political stratagems or humanitarian impulses - and discovering that the complexities of the continent thwart their original aims is an old story that is as true today as it was in Roman times. Chinese foreign policy, fixed on an ‘omni-directional' approach towards Africa that marries solidarity politics with resource diplomacy, is but the latest external power to encounter challenges to its preconceptions. But what is most compelling about the Chinese case is that its involvement in Africa seems to have produced a significant transformation in the certitudes that have guided its foreign policy for five decades. Africa is, in short, changing how China conceives of its role in the international system and the manner in which it conducts its foreign policy in some very fundamental ways.
Regional Integration Agenda: The SADC Summit and the SADC FTA
Diplomatic Pouch
This week as SADC heads of state gather in Johannesburg for the SADC Summit on 16-17 August much is at stake to boost closer political and economic integration in the region. One of the points on the economic agenda is the relaunch of the SADC Free Trade Area by heads of state under the banner “SADC Free Trade Area for Growth, Development and Wealth Creation”. There is no doubt that the FTA is an important milestone in the economic integration of the region. However, eight years after it was first implemented much still has to be done to address the hurdles to trade and closer economic integration in the SADC community. SAIIA’s Development through Trade project has produced a number of cutting-edge surveys that highlights the barriers to closer economic cooperation from the perspective of business.
The AU's Rubicon
Diplomatic Pouch
Having ‘won' re-election with 85% of the votes in the controversial run-off, the last thing Mugabe expected was a call by the AU summit to initiate a dialogue with the MDC about the establishment of a government of national unity. He should not be surprised.
Have We Been Here Before?
Diplomatic Pouch
The signing of the memorandum of understanding between Zanu-PF and the two MDC formations must certainly be welcomed after the protracted period of violence and political stalemate. But is it the right medicine and what does it say about the two protagonists?
An Alternative Foreign Policy
Diplomatic Pouch
Next year the fourth general elections of a democratic South Africa will signal the start of the post, post-apartheid era. The composition of the country's leadership will be very different from what we have had over the last fifteen years. A change in the cast of characters provides an opportunity to reassess policies and to chart new paths.
Zimbabwe's Plight, South Africa's Failure
Diplomatic Pouch
Morgan Tsvangirai's withdrawal from the presidential run-off scheduled for June 27, and his decision to seek the protection of the Dutch embassy in Harare, has secured for Zimbabwe's President Robert Mugabe a Pyrrhic victory. Mugabe's triumph comes at a huge cost to democracy and stability in Zimbabwe, as well as in the region. The actions of the Mugabe regime in the run-up to Tsvangirai's decision demand a strong regional response to what is clearly a stolen victory. Indeed, Mugabe's continuing in power represents the most serious challenge to Africa's nascent democratic institutions and to South Africa's vision of a continent of peace and prosperity.
