Will oil build or break Ghana's democracy?
Diplomatic Pouch
Will commercial oil production (due to begin later this year) build or break the back of Ghana’s democracy? This may seem an unnecessarily inflammatory question, but history demonstrates that healthy caution is necessary in managing oil revenues. Ghana, however, has made history by hosting a series of free and fair elections in recent years. Twice the opposition party has won and the incumbent has stepped down in a display of due respect for democracy. This is groundbreaking progress as less than a handful of African countries have attained such a benchmark of democratic consolidation.
The Congo Basin Forest Partnership: Together, Shaping the World of the Future
Diplomatic Pouch
On 11 and 12 November 2009, the sixth plenary session of the Congo Basin Forest Partnership (CBFP) took place in Yaoundé, Cameroon. This high-level meeting brought together delegates from the Central African Forests Commission (COMIFAC) countries as well as major development partners, certain international NGOs, international organisations and private sector representatives. One month ahead of the Copenhagen Conference, these delegates gathered around an issue central to the broader climate change agenda, namely forestry. Forestry is central not least because avoided deforestation in tropical forest areas, such as the Congo Basin, has been identified as a priority option for mitigating climate change. The world seems to agree that tropical forests are important. However, how this importance should translate into action is a subject of much debate.
Trade Policy Trajectory in South Africa
Diplomatic Pouch
Against the backdrop of the global economic crunch and the local economy’s recession, there is a fierce debate on South Africa’s (SA) trade policy trajectory. These matters have moved into sharp relief in light of the government’s decision to raise import tariffs on certain clothing items. Clothing, long the lightening rod for these debates, sees some trade experts, economists and actors in the tripartite alliance exhibiting a desire to tightly control trade policy; others support further trade liberalisation.
The Africa South America Summit, 27-28 September 2009
Diplomatic Pouch
The second Africa South America summit, hosted by President Hugo Chavez of Venezuela formed the third part of a triangle of events, starting with the General Debate at the opening of the 64th Session of the UN General Assembly in New York, followed immediately by the third summit of the G20 Financial in Pittsburgh.
Do the EU and South Africa Speak the Same Language of Peace and Security in Africa?
Diplomatic Pouch
Promoting peace and security in Africa is one of the goals of the EU-South Africa strategic partnership. Ongoing conflict in Darfur, Sudan and the crisis in Zimbabwe were high on the agenda of the 1st EU-South Africa summit held in July last year in Bordeaux, France, under the auspices of presidents Sarkozy and Mbeki. These issues were raised again this year at the 2nd EU-South Africa summit held in Cape Town on 11 September. At an academic forum held on the fringes of this summit, the question was asked whether the Zuma presidency has brought about a closer alignment of views with the EU on these most divisive cases in Africa. Are South Africa and the EU speaking the same language when it comes to peace and security in Africa?
Gabonese Election Aftermath Confirms Worrying Trends in African Politics
Diplomatic Pouch
The Gabonese Minister of Interior’s announcement that Ali-Ben Bongo Ondimba, candidate for the ruling Gabonese Democratic Party (PDG) and son of Gabon’s late President Omar Bongo, has won the 30 August presidential election came as no surprise to many Gabonese and observers of the country’s politics. The final tally gave Bongo 41.7 percent of the vote, with the main contenders, Andre Mba Obame and Pierre Mambounda receiving 25.8 and 25.2 percent respectively. But in the country, this verdict has been met with protests in the streets of the capital, Libreville, and clashes with police in other towns as opposition supporters question the outcome.
Term Limits – Who Needs Them?
Diplomatic Pouch
President Mamadou Tandja of Niger has joined the club of leaders who have overturned constitutions to overstay their welcome in recent years. Following victory in the referendum held on 4 August, he is the twelfth African leader in a decade to engineer a third term of office. Has the tide turned against the ‘third wave’ of democratization in Africa?
Reflecting on SADC Day
Diplomatic Pouch
The Southern African Development Community (SADC) has a vision of a common future. This will be one of prosperity for all, peace, justice, and security. Its vision is “anchored on the common values and principles and the historical and cultural affinities that exist amongst the peoples of Southern Africa”. On SADC day, 17 August, we can reflect on how this regional integration programme is coming along.
Africa: Taking the Gap in Modern Economic Theory
Diplomatic Pouch
The air is clearing after the spectacular financial crisis, markets are once again picking up, but will it be business as usual? Modern economic theory has been shaken to its roots, and its core assumptions are undergoing serious revision. What does this mean to Africa?
Are We Sleepwalking Into a Surveillance Society?
Diplomatic Pouch
From 1 July 2009 cellphone service providers in South Africa cannot activate a new SIM card without the full name, address and identity number of the customer. Existing SIM cards must be registered within 18 months. The new registration law is aimed at assisting law enforcement agencies to investigate and combat serious crime by ensuring that the identity and whereabouts of every SIM card owner is known to foil and investigate criminal activity. Customer information must be kept in a secure database for a minimum of three years, accessible only to selected personnel. But does monitoring criminal activity threaten our right to privacy, and more particularly, will it actually help to combat crime?
Russian President Medvedev's Visit to Africa, June 2009
Diplomatic Pouch
In a short period of less than a month, Russia has sought to assert its role in international forums as a leading player in a multipolar world. This objective is informed by the nationalistic view of its contemporary history initiated by Vladimir Putin, and holds that a unipolar world should no longer be dominated by a single hyper-power, the United States.
Looking Beyond Conflict and Economic Crisis in the DRC
Diplomatic Pouch
The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) on 30 June was one year short of its 50th anniversary of independence. In the current political and economic context, this year’s mood was reflective rather than celebratory. The anniversary day was therefore an opportune time for the South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA)’s Governance of Africa’s Resources Programme (GARP) to hold a roundtable discussion on the DRC. Attended by members of the governmental, diplomatic, academic, policy-making and business community, the event was aptly titled “Reviewing the Giant” and focused on the mining and forestry sectors.
Protesting in 140 keystrokes: Twitter and the Iranian Unrest
Diplomatic Pouch
When Twitter – the world’s latest social networking phenomenon – made the cover of Time Magazine’s 15 June edition, journalist Steve Johnson mused ‘Just 140 characters? I wonder if I could use that to start a political uprising.’ On that Monday morning, news of unrest in
APRM Forum in Libya: Few Surprises, Unanswered Questions
Diplomatic Pouch
A day ahead of this year’s African Union summit in Libya, the 11th meeting of the forum of the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM) took place in the sweltering seaside town of Sirte. Reports emerging from those who attended threw up few surprises and some lingering concerns.
The African Peer Review Mechanism – Progress and Prospects
Diplomatic Pouch
On 30 June 2009, as African leaders gather on the sweltering, dusty shores of the Mediterranean in Sirte, the hometown of Libyan President Muammar al-Gaddafi, for the 13th Summit of the African Union, some early birds will attend another vital meeting on the fringes. Participating heads of states will attend the 11th Forum of the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM), Africa’s voluntary home-grown governance monitoring endeavour. What’s on the agenda? And where is the mechanism heading?
Attracting the Youth Vote
Diplomatic Pouch
After their third landslide victory, the African National Congress now occupies 264 of the 400 seats in South Africa's parliament. In the post-mortem of the April 2009 polls, many of the opposition parties who won only a handful of seats will probably be left wondering how they got it all wrong. The ANC's firm grip on the majority is not only due to their advantageous position of incumbency and their resources, but also their efficient and energetic campaign. Opposition parties seem to have misjudged their electorate by adopting inadequate campaign strategies.
Reckoning with the APRM Recommendations
Diplomatic Pouch
The African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM) aims to promote 'good governance' in Africa, through systematic reviews of a state's governance practices and subsequent recommendations, made by the APRM's Panel of Eminent Persons in each report, on how to improve them. Deliberately styled as a 'peer review', it encourages representatives from different African countries (and ultimately an assembly of the participating Heads of State - the APR Forum), to interrogate each country's problems and to propose solutions.
The Lessons of April 22: Ballots vs. Bullets
Diplomatic Pouch
Wednesday 22 April 2009 will be remembered by many in Africa an historic day. Almost 80% of eligible voters in South Africa went to the polls peacefully in a national election to choose their fourth government since the watershed elections in 1994 that established a non-racial democracy in the country. This marked another triumph of the ballot over other forms of changing leaders in a continent that has suffered coups and assassinations over the past half-century. South Africans should be congratulated for this achievement, and Africans should learn valuable lessons from them in this regard.
Support for Zimbabwe’s Recovery: A Lost Opportunity for SADC?
Diplomatic Pouch
It has been over a month now since the unity government in Zimbabwe published proposals to dig the country out of the economic hole it has been languishing in over the best part of the past decade. The plan, named STERP (Short-Term Economic Recovery Plan) has been discussed and endorsed by the Southern African Development Community (SADC), the fourteen-member organization of countries in the region that was instrumental in facilitating the Global Political Agreement that gave birth to the unity government in Zimbabwe.
The More Things Change: What Zuma's Presidency Means for the Rest of Africa
Diplomatic Pouch
In a little over two weeks, Jacob Zuma will be sworn in as fourth president of South Africa since the advent of democracy in 1994.
At home, his presidency is viewed ambivalently - either as a breath of fresh air or as a worrying development for constitutionalism in South Africa. His supporters are quick to magnify former president Mbeki's aloofness and policy failures on crime, employment creation and HIV/AIDS as compelling evidence that a more affable and down-to-earth Jacob Zuma is indeed just what South Africa needs. His detractors associate the former deputy president with personal moral failure, corruption and a belief in populism: perhaps unjustly, given that question marks attached to his character are often linked to failed litigation against the incoming president.
Human Rights and Wrongs
Diplomatic Pouch
Aghast, betrayed and angry describe the reactions of many South Africans to their government's refusal of a visa to the Dalai Lama. They describe, too, widely held views on the role that South Africa has played on the UN Security Council, the UN Human Rights Council, and in respect of the crisis in Zimbabwe. Why, many are asking, has South Africa squandered its enormous moral capital and its commitment to human rights to side with some very questionable regimes?
Election Manifestos: Time for a Different Approach
Diplomatic Pouch
With the tempo of electioneering gathering pace in South Africa in preparation for the April 22 poll, one cannot but wonder what difference the frenetic efforts of politicians and their spin-doctors actually make to the voter. In 2009 alone, at least twenty countries on the continent are going to hold elections of some sort - from presidential to municipal. Do election manifestos provide sufficient guidance for voters to make a choice among the competing parties? Do they contain enough information, and particularly specific undertakings by the parties on what they would do if elected into government? And can parties deliver on the promises? A public debate in Johannesburg a fortnight ago on the issue carried the title "Election Manifestos: Sound and Fury Signifying Nothing?"
Multiple Truths and No Reconciliation: the International Criminal Court not yet in Sudan
Diplomatic Pouch
From an international criminal law perspective, the warrant of arrest for Sudanese President Omar Hassan al-Bashir, issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC) on 4 March 2009 is a historic document.
Has South Africa’s Foreign Policy Influence Peaked?
Diplomatic Pouch
Has South Africa's foreign policy influence peaked? If the current state of our nation is difficult to divine, then assessing the state of the country's international relations is even more perplexing. A clutch of institutional, conjunctural and structural issues challenge the effectiveness of South Africa's foreign policy, all of which demand sober consideration.
Prioritising Energy Security in Southern Africa
Diplomatic Pouch
Two key issues emerged from the tenth Southern Africa Energy conference, held in Sandton Johannesburg from 10 - 12 February 2009. These were the urgent need to hasten regional energy integration and the need for Africa to properly strategise on and harness the role of financial markets in the quest for energy security.
Gaza: is there a Solution?
Diplomatic Pouch
As soon as Barack Obama took over the Oval office as the 44th President of the United States and Hillary Clinton entered her Eighth Floor office at the State Department, it was clear that immediate action on the ongoing Palestinian-Israeli feud was one of the incoming administration's most urgent challenges.
A Stitch out of Time? Africa's Solution to the Zimbabwean Crisis
Diplomatic Pouch
Seeking 'African solutions to African problems' is frequently adopted as a mantra to conflict resolution by a curious partnership of African leaders eager to prove their capacity to meet their own challenges, and western powers who have historically been eager to help Africa along but increasingly prefer to let Africans clean up after their own mess or dig themselves in deeper. African solution efforts draw widespread scepticism from observers who have witnessed the African Union (AU) struggle to resolve conflicts in trouble spots such as Sudan's Darfur region, and among Africa's traditional Western donors who have poured aid into Africa with modest results for over six decades. Whether African leaders can indeed solve their own problems is less certain. What does the recently-concluded diplomatic resolution to the Zimbabwe crisis teach us?
"Helping" Africa
Diplomatic Pouch
Particular moments - like Barack Obama's presidential inauguration - seem wired with history. Expectations are high that he will be a natural friend of Africa. Could his presidency be the historical moment in which Africa assumes its place in the world?
20 January, 2009: The Inauguration of Barack Obama as President of the United States
Diplomatic Pouch
SAIIA was delighted to host then Senator Barack Obama in 2006. He was inaugurated as the 44th President of the United States of America on the 20th of January 2009
The recent election of Barack Obama as President of the United States was dubbed, in Cape Town on the morning of 5 November, 2008, as ‘America's Mandela Moment' by United States Consul General Alberta Mayberry. Although the parallel is not exact, there will be a similar international euphoria accompanying the inauguration of Barack Obama and his Vice President, Joseph Biden, on Tuesday, 20 January, 2009 at 12 noon in Washington, DC (or 7 pm, South African time).
The G-20 Meeting in Washington November 14-15 2008
Diplomatic Pouch
On the eve of the G20 meeting in Washington, SAIIA is releasing a Policy Briefing entitled "Towards a new ‘Washington consensus'? South Africa, the G20 leaders' summit, and the financial crisis" by Peter Draper.
China-Africa Trade and the Global Financial Crisis
Diplomatic Pouch
The spectacular growth of emerging economies, especially China and India, had brought major hope among commentators/analysts that the developing world's growth prospects would not be severely affected by the current financial crisis in the US and most of the developed world. Sino-Africa trade had reached $72 billion in the first eight months of 2008, a 62% increase from the previous year.
Economic Partnership Agreements and Intellectual Property Rights protection: challenges for the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region
Diplomatic Pouch
The negotiations for Economic Partnerships Agreements (EPAs) between African Caribbean and Pacific countries (ACP) and the European Union (EU) were launched in 2000.These negotiations were carried out in terms of the Cotonou Agreement which seeks to replace non reciprocal trade preferences (under the Lome Agreement), which the ACP countries have been receiving from the EU. The aim was to conclude full and comprehensive agreements by the end of 2007 so as to meet the deadline for bringing the EU's preferential trade arrangements for goods with the ACP countries into conformity with the World Trade Organization's (WTO) General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT).
Peer Review Progress, but Many Miss the Meeting
Diplomatic Pouch
Last weekend, the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM) was in the spotlight in Benin. From 25-26 October 2008, participating African Heads of State and Government gathered in Cotonou for the first Extraordinary African Peer Review Forum. Most Forum meetings are traditionally held on the margins of busy African Union Summits, where other business frequently intervenes. In Egypt in June-July, Zimbabwe dominated. This time, the APRM was squarely the focus. But do the benefits of a longer, more in-depth stand-alone meeting outweigh notoriously poor attendance?
Africom
Diplomatic Pouch
On 1 October 2008 the US military's African Command was launched in Washington DC. Two weeks later a similar ceremony took place at Africom's headquarters in Stuttgart.
What is Africom and why has its creation been so controversial and met with suspicion in some African countries?
Lesotho's Lessons for the ANC on Forming New Parties
Diplomatic Pouch
Following Thabo Mbeki's abrupt resignation as South African president last month, there has been much speculation about the possibility and desirability of a new political party emerging from disgruntled ruling party members. Further resignations of Gauteng premier Mbhazima Shilowa and several cabinet members, hostile open letters between senior African National Congress (ANC) leaders and statements by others that would follow or vote for another party (other than existing opposition parties), have fuelled the fire. The discussion has revolved around two points: that significant elements of the party have felt sidelined at least since the December 2007 ANC Congress in Polokwane, where Mbeki lost leadership of the party to Jacob Zuma; and that democracy in South Africa would benefit from a credible and strong party with a broad national base to challenge the ANC. However, experience from Lesotho might provide lessons for South Africa on the prospects of a breakaway party.
Tension between the West and Russia: Implications for Africa
Diplomatic Pouch
The world is currently concerned with redefining Western-Russian relations in the wake of the Georgian conflict. The press has even been discussing the possibility of a ‘new' Cold War. If this materialises, what would be the implications for Africa?
Adding Value to African Peer Review
Diplomatic Pouch
On 22 September 2008, the United Nations in New York holds a high-level meeting on ‘Africa's Development Needs'. Important components will be the development of governance, and the governance of development. And none is more significant than the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM).
South Africa and the General Assembly's 63rd Session
Diplomatic Pouch
The 63rd Session of the General Assembly, which opened this Tuesday, 16 September 2008, will surely be of particular significance to President Thabo Mbeki. Not only will his address to the General Assembly Session - on 24 September 2008 - be his last as President of South Africa, but the Session will no doubt be of great importance, given its focus on the African Agenda as well as the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).
What Angola's Election Means
Diplomatic Pouch
Recent elections in Angola help indicate the direction of democracy in Africa. Seen alongside other developments, they suggest that progress is being made in building democracy, but this is only part of the governance equation. Angola faces challenges far beyond the parliamentary election this September.
African Elections: Real Choice, or No Change?
Diplomatic Pouch
Africa faces a spate of parliamentary and presidential polls before the end of the year. Angola, Rwanda and Swaziland will vote in September, Zambia and Côte d'Ivoire (if it happens) in November, and Ghana in December. But will any of them offer genuine choice or real change for citizens? Despite many excellent governance standards ratified by parliaments across the continent, and reform initiatives like the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM) to which all these states - except Swaziland and Côte d'Ivoire - have acceded, many African elections are becoming more fractious, rigged and violent than ever, especially where the result is close. Or they produce landslides for ruling regimes.
Turkey's Outreach To Africa
Diplomatic Pouch
Fifty African heads of state and government, or their representatives, participated in the first Turkish-African Summit held in Istanbul from 18-20 August 2008[1]. Hosted by Turkish President Abdullah Gül and attended by UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and Jean Ping, the Chairperson of the African Union Commission, South Africa was represented by Deputy President Phumzile Mlambo-Ncuka. In her address to the summit, the South African deputy president spoke in very positive terms of Turkey and the role it can play in Africa's development.[2]
Is Africa Changing China?
Diplomatic Pouch
‘There is always something new out of Africa.' So said Pliny the Elder two thousand years ago when considering Rome's changing fortunes as it sought to manage its ties with the African continent. The spectacle of foreigners intent on pursuing their interests in Africa - be they commercial gains, political stratagems or humanitarian impulses - and discovering that the complexities of the continent thwart their original aims is an old story that is as true today as it was in Roman times. Chinese foreign policy, fixed on an ‘omni-directional' approach towards Africa that marries solidarity politics with resource diplomacy, is but the latest external power to encounter challenges to its preconceptions. But what is most compelling about the Chinese case is that its involvement in Africa seems to have produced a significant transformation in the certitudes that have guided its foreign policy for five decades. Africa is, in short, changing how China conceives of its role in the international system and the manner in which it conducts its foreign policy in some very fundamental ways.
Regional Integration Agenda: The SADC Summit and the SADC FTA
Diplomatic Pouch
This week as SADC heads of state gather in Johannesburg for the SADC Summit on 16-17 August much is at stake to boost closer political and economic integration in the region. One of the points on the economic agenda is the relaunch of the SADC Free Trade Area by heads of state under the banner “SADC Free Trade Area for Growth, Development and Wealth Creation”. There is no doubt that the FTA is an important milestone in the economic integration of the region. However, eight years after it was first implemented much still has to be done to address the hurdles to trade and closer economic integration in the SADC community. SAIIA’s Development through Trade project has produced a number of cutting-edge surveys that highlights the barriers to closer economic cooperation from the perspective of business.
The AU's Rubicon
Diplomatic Pouch
Having ‘won' re-election with 85% of the votes in the controversial run-off, the last thing Mugabe expected was a call by the AU summit to initiate a dialogue with the MDC about the establishment of a government of national unity. He should not be surprised.
Have We Been Here Before?
Diplomatic Pouch
The signing of the memorandum of understanding between Zanu-PF and the two MDC formations must certainly be welcomed after the protracted period of violence and political stalemate. But is it the right medicine and what does it say about the two protagonists?
An Alternative Foreign Policy
Diplomatic Pouch
Next year the fourth general elections of a democratic South Africa will signal the start of the post, post-apartheid era. The composition of the country's leadership will be very different from what we have had over the last fifteen years. A change in the cast of characters provides an opportunity to reassess policies and to chart new paths.
Zimbabwe's Plight, South Africa's Failure
Diplomatic Pouch
Morgan Tsvangirai's withdrawal from the presidential run-off scheduled for June 27, and his decision to seek the protection of the Dutch embassy in Harare, has secured for Zimbabwe's President Robert Mugabe a Pyrrhic victory. Mugabe's triumph comes at a huge cost to democracy and stability in Zimbabwe, as well as in the region. The actions of the Mugabe regime in the run-up to Tsvangirai's decision demand a strong regional response to what is clearly a stolen victory. Indeed, Mugabe's continuing in power represents the most serious challenge to Africa's nascent democratic institutions and to South Africa's vision of a continent of peace and prosperity.
